Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Al-Nassr
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Nassr Win
Match Result
7.8/10Al-Qadisiyah FC Stun Al-Nassr with 3-1 Home Triumph in Dammam
Al-Qadisiyah FC delivered a statement performance at the Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, overcoming Al-Nassr 3-1 in a match that saw both sides trade blows before the hosts pulled away in the second half. The home side edged possession with 52% and matched Al-Nassr in shot attempts (12 each), but crucially, they were far more clinical, firing six shots on target to the visitors' two. After Julián Quiñones opened the scoring for Al-Qadisiyah in the 24th minute, Al-Nassr responded through Cristiano Ronaldo just before halftime. However, the hosts regrouped after the break, regaining the lead in the 55th minute and sealing the result with a third goal in the 78th. Al-Nassr, despite boasting attacking firepower, struggled to create clear chances and were ultimately undone by Al-Qadisiyah's sharp finishing and disciplined defending.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
24' — Goal
Julián Quiñones opens the scoring for Al-Qadisiyah FC, finishing a well-worked move.
39' — Goal
Cristiano Ronaldo levels for Al-Nassr, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse.
55' — Goal
Al-Qadisiyah retake the lead with a composed finish, shifting momentum firmly in their favor.
78' — Goal
Al-Qadisiyah seal the win with a third goal, capping a dominant second-half display.
various' — Yellow Cards
Al-Nassr collect three yellow cards as frustration grows, while Al-Qadisiyah pick up one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC produced a well-rounded display, combining attacking intent with defensive solidity. Their midfield, marshaled by Nahitan Nández and Otávio, dictated the tempo and ensured the hosts stayed on the front foot for much of the contest. The attacking duo of Julián Quiñones and Abdullah Al-Salem provided constant threat, with Quiñones particularly influential in breaking the deadlock and leading the line. Defensively, the backline, anchored by Nacho Fernández and Gastón Álvarez, coped admirably with Al-Nassr's star-studded attack. Koen Casteels was rarely troubled, thanks to the team's collective organization and pressing, which limited Al-Nassr to just two shots on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr started brightly but faded as the match wore on, unable to capitalize on their attacking talent. Cristiano Ronaldo's first-half equalizer briefly restored parity, but the visitors struggled to break down a resolute Al-Qadisiyah defense thereafter. Despite matching the hosts in total shots, Al-Nassr's efforts lacked precision, with only two attempts testing Koen Casteels. The midfield, featuring Marcelo Brozović and João Félix, was unable to exert sustained control, and the team’s frustration was evident in the three yellow cards collected. Defensively, lapses at key moments proved costly, as Al-Qadisiyah exploited spaces to score twice in the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up with balanced formations, with Al-Qadisiyah opting for a solid back four and a dynamic midfield trio. Their pressing game disrupted Al-Nassr's build-up, forcing turnovers and enabling quick transitions. The hosts utilized width effectively, stretching Al-Nassr's defense and creating space for their forwards. Al-Nassr, despite their attacking lineup, struggled to find rhythm in midfield and were often forced into wide areas where their crossing was well-defended. The visitors' attempts to inject pace and creativity through João Félix and Kingsley Coman were largely stifled by Al-Qadisiyah's organized shape. Substitutions failed to alter the tactical balance, as Al-Qadisiyah remained compact and dangerous on the counter.
Turning Point
Al-Qadisiyah's second goal in the 55th minute restored their lead and shifted momentum, deflating Al-Nassr and setting the stage for a confident finish.
Man of the Match
Julián Quiñones
Opened the scoring, led the line with authority, and was a constant threat throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Nassr Win
Al-Nassr are on a five-game winning streak, have the best away record in the league, and average 2.72 goals per game while conceding only 0.72. Al-Qadisiyah are unbeaten at home but have drawn many matches and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. Al-Nassr's attack and defensive solidity outweigh Al-Qadisiyah's home advantage.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Al-Qadisiyah 68.97%, Al-Nassr 65.52%). Recent matches for both sides have featured goals, and both have strong attacking numbers.
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BTTS: Yes
Al-Qadisiyah have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches, and Al-Nassr's last five have included two BTTS. Both attacks are in form, though Al-Nassr's defense is strong.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction
This is a high-stakes clash between the league leaders Al-Nassr and fourth-placed, unbeaten-at-home Al-Qadisiyah. Al-Nassr arrive in imperious form, with five consecutive wins, a dominant away record, and a powerful attack led by recent high-scoring performances. Al-Qadisiyah are resilient at home but have shown defensive vulnerabilities, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Expect a competitive match with attacking intent from both sides, but Al-Nassr's quality and momentum give them the edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Al-Nassr's five-game winning streak and best away record (12W, 1D, 2L).
Defence
- →Al-Qadisiyah unbeaten at home (9W, 6D, 0L) but with recent defensive issues (0 clean sheets in last 5).
- →Al-Nassr's defense: only 0.72 goals conceded per game, 55% clean sheet rate.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams average over 2 goals per match; high over 2.5 goal percentages.
- →Recent H2H: Al-Qadisiyah have won the last two, but Al-Nassr historically strong overall.
🚩 Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 6.2 for Al-Nassr, for an expected total of 13. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (83%). Over 8.5: 90% · Over 10.5: 75%.
How Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Qadisiyah FClast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Al-Nassrlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70.97% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 19 shots/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +54.84% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
0
Draws
4
Al-Nassr wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Al-Qadisiyah's strong home record and recent H2H wins introduce upset potential.
- ⚠️Small sample for some stats (e.g., corners, cards) in recent matches.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could affect predictions.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.