Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al Taawon
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4(+16% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Al-Ahli Jeddah Edge Al Taawon in Hard-Fought Away Victory
Al-Ahli Jeddah secured a crucial 2-1 win over Al Taawon at the Al Taawon Arena, overcoming a spirited second-half comeback from the hosts. The visitors struck first through Ivan Toney in the 17th minute, capitalizing on early dominance, but Al Taawon responded after the break with a well-taken equalizer from Roger Martínez in the 55th minute. The match remained finely poised until the 79th minute, when a decisive goal restored Al-Ahli's lead and ultimately sealed the points. Al Taawon enjoyed more possession (56%) and registered 15 shots, but struggled to convert their opportunities against a resolute Al-Ahli defense. The visitors, despite seeing less of the ball, were clinical with their chances and held firm under late pressure, aided by disciplined performances across the pitch. Both sides finished with all players on the field, though the contest was fiercely contested with a combined five yellow cards.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
Ivan Toney opens the scoring for Al-Ahli Jeddah, finishing off a swift attack.
55' — Goal
Roger Martínez levels for Al Taawon, converting after sustained pressure.
79' — Goal
Al-Ahli Jeddah retake the lead, capitalizing on a defensive lapse from the hosts.
various' — Yellow Cards
Physical contest sees Al Taawon pick up 2 yellows and Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.
Al Taawon
Al Taawon demonstrated attacking intent, dominating possession and creating more chances, but were ultimately left to rue their profligacy in front of goal. Their 15 shots and 7 corners reflected sustained pressure, especially in the second half, but only Roger Martínez managed to breach the Al-Ahli defense. Defensively, they were caught out twice, unable to fully contain Al-Ahli's counter-attacks. Despite a strong midfield showing and energetic wing play, Al Taawon struggled to turn their territorial advantage into goals, and their efforts were further hampered by two yellow cards in a physical encounter.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah executed their game plan effectively, absorbing pressure and striking clinically on the break. Ivan Toney opened the scoring early, and the team weathered Al Taawon's second-half resurgence before finding the winner late on. Despite having only 44% possession and just one corner, Al-Ahli matched their hosts with 4 shots on target from 9 total efforts, making their opportunities count. Defensively, Al-Ahli were organized and combative, picking up three yellow cards but keeping their composure in key moments. Their ability to withstand pressure and capitalize on decisive moments defined their victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al Taawon lined up in a 3-4-2-1, seeking to dominate the midfield and utilize width through their wingbacks. Their approach yielded more possession and territorial advantage, but left them vulnerable to quick transitions. Al-Ahli Jeddah, in a 4-2-3-1, focused on compactness and breaking forward at pace, with Ivan Toney leading the line and Riyad Mahrez orchestrating from deeper positions. Al-Ahli's defensive discipline and ability to spring forward in numbers proved decisive, while Al Taawon's reliance on sustained possession lacked the cutting edge required to break down a well-drilled backline. The physical nature of the match was evident, with both sides committing numerous fouls and collecting several yellow cards.
Turning Point
The 79th-minute goal for Al-Ahli Jeddah, which restored their lead and deflated Al Taawon's momentum after their equalizer.
Man of the Match
Ivan Toney
His early goal set the tone, and his movement and hold-up play were crucial in Al-Ahli's attacking transitions.
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Expected goals · model says 0.65
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (41%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (25%), suggesting value despite the low baseline expectation for goals.
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The Case For This Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction
Al Taawon host Al-Ahli Jeddah in a clash between a solid top-five side and a title-chasing heavyweight. The visitors have been defensively outstanding all season and travel well, while Al Taawon have struggled to keep clean sheets but can threaten on their day. Expect Al-Ahli Jeddah to control the game, with Al Taawon needing to be clinical to get anything from it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favor Al-Ahli Jeddah, but the price on over 2.5 goals looks generous given both teams' attacking potential.
Defence
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah have the league's third-best away record and the best defensive record (0.74 conceded per game, 51.6% clean sheet rate).
- →Al Taawon have not kept a clean sheet in their last five and average 1.6 conceded per match in that span.
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack is consistent (2.0 goals per game season avg), while Al Taawon are less reliable at home (27 scored, 21 conceded in 15 home matches).
Match Context
- →Recent H2H is dominated by Al-Ahli Jeddah, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings (including 2-1 in the reverse fixture).
🚩 Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Al Taawon and 3.7 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al Taawonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al Taawon have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last five (form: WLWLD), but are coming off a big 5-1 away win over Al Shabab. Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have won four of their last five in all competitions (WWLWW), including two comfortable home victories and a Champions League away win, showing strong momentum.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent head-to-heads have favored Al-Ahli Jeddah, who have won four of the last five meetings and scored at least two goals in each of those wins. Al Taawon have managed just one win in the last ten, with most matches being competitive but ultimately swinging the way of the visitors.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Al Taawon wins
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model finds value in the over 2.5 goals market, where the odds (4.00) underestimate the chance of a higher-scoring game given both teams' attacking output and recent H2H trends. Conversely, the price on 'BTTS: No' is too short relative to the model's probability, suggesting little value there.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- ⚠️Some recent match stats are missing (shots, possession, etc.) for both teams, introducing uncertainty.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available, so late injuries or rotations could impact the outcome.
- ⚠️Al Taawon can be unpredictable at home, with both high-scoring wins and unexpected losses.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.