Alaves vs Valencia Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Alaves
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Valencia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.8(+33% edge)
Match Result
6.9/10Late Duro Strike Seals Valencia Win at Mendizorroza
Valencia edged out Alaves 1-0 at the Estadio de Mendizorroza, with Hugo Duro’s late goal in the 78th minute proving decisive in a tightly contested La Liga encounter. The visitors enjoyed the lion’s share of possession (57%) and looked the more composed side, but Alaves battled hard, creating 15 shots to Valencia’s 10, though both teams managed just three shots on target apiece. The match was a physical affair, with Valencia picking up four yellow cards to Alaves’ one, and momentum swung back and forth as both sides probed for an opening. Ultimately, Valencia’s patience paid off as Duro found the net late on, punishing Alaves for their inability to convert their chances and securing a valuable three points on the road.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
78' — Goal
Hugo Duro scores the decisive goal for Valencia after sustained pressure.
various' — Yellow Cards
Valencia accumulate four bookings, reflecting a combative approach.
various' — Alaves chances
Alaves register 15 shots but fail to find the net, highlighting their wastefulness.
Alaves
Alaves put in a spirited display, matching Valencia for much of the evening and showing attacking intent with 15 shots. However, their finishing let them down, as only three of those efforts tested the goalkeeper. The 3-5-2 formation allowed them to compete in midfield, but they struggled to break down Valencia’s disciplined defense and were ultimately undone by a lapse late in the game. Despite a solid defensive effort for most of the match and a relatively clean disciplinary record (just one yellow card), Alaves lacked the cutting edge in the final third to take something from the contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valencia
Valencia showed maturity and control, dictating the tempo with 57% possession and moving the ball well in a 4-2-3-1 setup. Their patience was rewarded when Hugo Duro struck in the 78th minute, capitalizing on one of their three shots on target. Defensively, they absorbed Alaves’ pressure and managed to keep a clean sheet, despite conceding 15 shots. The visitors’ physical approach (14 fouls, 4 yellow cards) sometimes threatened to boil over, but they maintained composure when it mattered most to see out the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Alaves lined up in a 3-5-2, aiming to crowd the midfield and provide width through wing-backs, but struggled to break down Valencia’s compact shape. Their approach allowed them to create a decent number of shooting opportunities, but their lack of quality in the final third was evident. Valencia’s 4-2-3-1 offered balance between defense and attack, with two holding midfielders shielding the back four and allowing the creative trio behind Hugo Duro to probe for openings. Their superior possession allowed them to control the tempo, and tactical fouling helped disrupt Alaves’ rhythm, though at the cost of multiple bookings.
Turning Point
Hugo Duro’s 78th-minute goal, which broke the deadlock and shifted momentum irreversibly in Valencia’s favor.
Man of the Match
Hugo Duro
Delivered the match-winning goal and led the line with intelligence and persistence.
Alaves vs Valencia: Match Preview
Alaves come into this fixture with their tails up, having taken ten points from their opening four matches and boasting a perfect home record. Their latest outing, a 5-2 demolition of Osasuna, showcased the confidence and attacking variety currently running through the side. Valencia, by contrast, are mired at the foot of the table, picking up just one point and scoring only once in four league games. The visitors are on a three-match losing streak and have conceded nine goals in that span, the heaviest of which was a 0-5 home defeat to Barcelona.
The tactical matchup tilts heavily towards the hosts: Alaves are averaging 2.6 goals per game over their last five, while conceding just 0.6. Their home matches have seen them dominate weaker attacks, with three clean sheets in four league outings. Valencia, meanwhile, have failed to score in four of their last five and are averaging just 0.2 goals per game in that stretch. Alaves' defensive structure has been complemented by a clinical front line, with L. Boye and M. Diaz combining for six goals in the last two matches. Set-piece threat is also notable, with Alaves averaging 4.2 corners per game over their last five.
Given the extreme contrast in form, the model expects Alaves to control the tempo and territory from the outset. Valencia's blunt attack and leaky defence make a home win the likeliest outcome, with a clean sheet for Alaves well within reach. The most plausible threat to this narrative is an early goal against the run of play, but the data points overwhelmingly to a home side in the ascendancy.
How Alaves and Valencia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Alaves vs Valencia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Alaveslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Valencialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Alaves are flying, unbeaten in four league matches and with three straight wins at home, including a 5-2 rout of Osasuna. Their attack is clicking, averaging 2.6 goals per game in the last five and showing late-game strength. Valencia, on the other hand, are in freefall: winless and bottom of the table, they've lost three in a row and failed to score in four of their last five, conceding nine in the process.
Alaves vs Valencia — Last 6 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Alaves vs Valencia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Alaves vs Valencia that most previews miss.
- 1Valencia have failed to score a single second-half goal in their last five matches.
- 2Alaves have scored eight of their last thirteen goals after the 50th minute, highlighting their late-game strength.
- 3Three of the last four Alaves vs Valencia league meetings in Vitoria have produced under 2.5 goals.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Alaves vs Valencia?
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The Case For This Alaves vs Valencia Prediction
Alaves are riding a wave of early-season momentum, unbeaten in La Liga with three wins from four and a perfect home record. Valencia, rooted to the bottom, look bereft of confidence after a trio of defeats and just one goal scored all season. The form lines could hardly be more divergent, and the data suggests that trajectory is only intensifying.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Valencia have failed to score in four of their last five matches and have lost three in a row.
- →Alaves' last five matches average 2.6 goals for and just 0.6 against per game.
Defence
- →Alaves have won three consecutive home league matches, scoring nine and conceding two.
Where the Model Sees Value: Alaves vs Valencia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Alaves Win@ 2.24
Alaves arrive with a 10-point haul from four matches, including three straight home wins and a +7 goal difference, while Valencia have scored just once in four games and are on a three-match losing streak. The momentum gap is stark, with Alaves averaging 2.6 goals per game in their last five and Valencia failing to score in four of their last five.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 1.8
Valencia have failed to score in four of their last five, while Alaves have kept three clean sheets in that span. The home side's defensive solidity and Valencia's lack of attacking threat make 'BTTS: No' a strong angle.
Read more ↓
More La Liga Predictions
🚩 Alaves vs Valencia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Alaves and 4.8 for Valencia, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
What History Says: Alaves vs Valencia
Alaves have dominated recent home meetings, winning three of the last four against Valencia in Vitoria and keeping clean sheets in each of those victories. The last four league clashes here have all finished with under 2.5 goals, and Valencia have not won away at Alaves in their last five league visits.
Alaves vs Valencia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Alaves wins
2
Draws
3
Valencia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Alaves vs Valencia
The strongest value edges are on an Alaves win (model probability 56% vs 45% implied by odds of 2.2) and 'BTTS: No' (model 74% vs 56% implied by odds of 1.8). Both are underpinned by the extreme contrast in recent form and Valencia's ongoing attacking struggles, suggesting the market may be underestimating just how wide the current gulf is.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Alaves vs Valencia
- ⚠️Early-season volatility means both teams' true levels may not be fully reflected yet.
- ⚠️Alaves' recent goal surge (five vs Osasuna) is above their usual attacking output and may regress.
- ⚠️Valencia's squad quality is typically higher than current form suggests; a reaction is possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Alaves 2–0 ValenciaThe model calls a 2-0 win for Alaves, driven primarily by the hosts' red-hot form and Valencia's ongoing attacking woes. The clearest data signal is Valencia's four blanks in five matches, making it difficult to see them breaching an Alaves defence that's kept three clean sheets in the same period. The main risk is a regression from Alaves' recent scoring burst or a surprise tactical shift from Valencia, but the form lines point strongly to a home win and clean sheet.
Alaves vs Valencia: Common Questions
Who will win Alaves vs Valencia?
The model gives Alaves a 56% chance of victory, compared to just 16% for Valencia and 28% for the draw. The hosts are in outstanding form, with three straight home wins and a +7 goal difference, while Valencia have lost three in a row and scored only once all season.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
It's unlikely: the model rates 'BTTS: No' at 74%. Valencia have failed to score in four of their last five matches, and Alaves have kept three clean sheets in the same span.
Can Alaves maintain their winning streak?
Alaves are well-placed to extend their run, with a perfect home record and 2.6 goals per game over their last five matches. Valencia's current form (three straight defeats, just one goal scored) makes an upset improbable, though early-season volatility always carries some risk.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Alaves vs Valencia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.