AS Roma vs Lazio Predictions
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 0
Lazio
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.75(+17% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Roma Clinch Derby della Capitale with 2-0 Triumph Over Ten-Man Lazio
AS Roma secured a crucial 2-0 victory over city rivals Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico, asserting their dominance in the Derby della Capitale. The hosts broke the deadlock just before halftime and doubled their lead midway through the second half, capitalizing on a disciplined performance and key moments of attacking quality. Both sides finished the match with ten men after a flurry of cards in a heated contest, but Roma’s composure and clinical edge proved decisive. The match was finely balanced in terms of possession (50% each), but Roma’s attacking intent shone through as they registered 13 shots with 6 on target, compared to Lazio’s 6 attempts and just 2 on target. Despite a physical battle that saw 32 fouls and two red cards, Roma’s tactical discipline and sharper execution in the final third ensured they took all three points and local bragging rights.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Roma open the scoring, taking a crucial lead just before halftime.
66' — Goal
Roma double their advantage, putting the game firmly in their control.
Second Half' — Red Card
Both teams reduced to ten men after a heated exchange, raising the intensity of the derby.
AS Roma
Roma delivered a controlled and purposeful display, making the most of their 3-4-2-1 setup to stretch Lazio and create the better chances. Their midfield, marshaled by Bryan Cristante and Neil El Aynaoui, provided both defensive solidity and attacking impetus. The Giallorossi were particularly effective down the flanks, winning 7 corners and keeping Lazio’s wide players in check. Despite going down to ten men, Roma’s organization and resilience saw them through to a deserved win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Lazio
Lazio struggled to impose themselves in the attacking third, managing just 6 shots and 2 on target despite matching Roma for possession. Their 4-3-3 formation failed to generate width or sustained pressure, and the midfield trio could not consistently link up with the forwards. Defensive lapses and ill-discipline—reflected in 17 fouls, 3 yellow cards, and a red card—undermined their efforts. Lazio’s inability to respond after falling behind ultimately sealed their fate.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Roma’s 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield and exploit the flanks, with wingbacks providing width and support in both phases. The double pivot of Cristante and El Aynaoui shielded the back three and launched quick transitions, while Dybala operated in the pockets to link midfield and attack. Lazio’s 4-3-3 struggled to create overloads out wide, and their midfield was often bypassed by Roma’s incisive passing. The match’s physicality led to frequent stoppages and disrupted rhythm, but Roma adapted better, especially after the red cards, by dropping deeper and hitting on the break. Set pieces were another area where Roma looked dangerous, as evidenced by their 7 corners. Lazio, meanwhile, failed to capitalize on their rare attacking moments, often stifled by Roma’s well-drilled defensive line.
Turning Point
Roma’s second goal in the 66th minute, which killed Lazio’s momentum and effectively sealed the result.
Man of the Match
Paulo Dybala
His creativity, involvement in both goals, and constant threat were decisive in Roma’s derby win.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
37%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AS Roma vs Lazio Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: AS Roma vs Lazio?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AS Roma vs Lazio(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.75
Roma's defensive form is strong (3 clean sheets in last 5, only 0.6 goals conceded per game), Lazio have failed to score in 2 of last 5 and average just 1.08 goals per game this season. H2H also trends low-scoring: 7/10 last meetings saw at least one side fail to score.
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Match Result: AS Roma Win@ 1.25
Roma are in excellent form (WWWDW), with a dominant home record (12W/3D/3L, 31:10 GF:GA), while Lazio have been inconsistent away and just lost 0-3 at home to Inter. The price is short, so value is marginal.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This AS Roma vs Lazio Prediction
AS Roma come into the Derby della Capitale in outstanding form, riding a three-game winning streak and displaying both attacking flair and defensive solidity. Lazio, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency and are coming off a heavy defeat to Inter. With Roma's excellent home record and recent H2H dominance, they look well-placed to control the match, while Lazio's attack may find it tough to break through.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Roma: 3 clean sheets in last 5, only 0.6 goals conceded/game in that span
- →Lazio: only 1 clean sheet in last 5, failed to score in 2 of last 5
Match Context
- →Roma home record: 12W/3D/3L, 31:10 GF:GA
- →Lazio away record: 6W/6D/6L, 14:13 GF:GA
- →H2H: 7/10 last meetings saw at least one side fail to score
- →Motivation: Roma still in European race, Lazio mid-table
🚩 AS Roma vs Lazio Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for AS Roma and 4 for Lazio, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How AS Roma and Lazio Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AS Roma vs Lazio Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AS Romalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Laziolast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Roma are in red-hot form, winning four of their last five and scoring freely (2.6 goals/game), while conceding just 0.6 per match. Lazio, by contrast, have won only two of their last five and suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat to Inter in their most recent outing, highlighting their inconsistency and defensive frailty.
AS Roma vs Lazio — Last 10 Matches
No recent results available
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: AS Roma vs Lazio
Recent head-to-head meetings have been tight and low-scoring, with Roma winning the last two home derbies without conceding. Across the last 10, the fixture has been evenly split, but clean sheets and under 2.5 goals are recurring themes, suggesting another cagey encounter is likely.
AS Roma vs Lazio Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
AS Roma wins
2
Draws
3
Lazio wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AS Roma vs Lazio
The strongest value edge is on 'BTTS: No', with the model assigning a 74% probability (implied odds 1.35) versus the bookmaker's 1.75 (implied 57.1%), giving a substantial positive expected value. The draw also shows a slight edge, but Roma's home win odds are too short to offer value despite their strong form.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AS Roma vs Lazio
- ⚠️No over/under odds available, reducing confidence in goal market value assessment
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotation could impact predictions
- ⚠️Derby matches can be unpredictable and more intense than average league games
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Roma vs Lazio: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.