AS Roma vs Lecce Predictions
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 0
Lecce
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: AS Roma Win
@ 1.08
Match Result
6.8/10Pellegrini Strike Lifts Roma to Narrow Win Over Stubborn Lecce
AS Roma edged out Lecce 1-0 at the Stadio Olimpico in a tightly contested Serie A encounter, with Lorenzo Pellegrini’s second-half goal proving decisive. Roma dominated possession, controlling 67% of the ball and registering 14 shots, but struggled to break down a resolute Lecce side that defended in numbers and threatened on the counter. The breakthrough came in the 57th minute when Pellegrini found the net, capitalizing on sustained pressure after the break. Despite Lecce’s late push and three shots on target, Roma’s back three, marshaled by Gianluca Mancini and Evan Ndicka, held firm to secure a vital three points. Both sides picked up two yellow cards apiece in a physical contest, but neither saw red as the match finished with all players on the pitch.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
57' — Goal
Lorenzo Pellegrini scores to give Roma the lead after sustained pressure.
65' — Yellow Card
Roma player booked as Lecce threaten on the break.
72' — Yellow Card
Lecce’s frustration grows as they pick up a booking for a late challenge.
80' — Roma Corner
Roma win their 10th corner, continuing to press for a second goal.
88' — Lecce Shot on Target
Lecce force a save from Svilar as they chase a late equalizer.
AS Roma
Roma asserted their authority from the outset, monopolizing possession and probing Lecce’s defensive lines with width and overlapping runs from wing-backs Devyne Rensch and Konstantinos Tsimikas. Despite their dominance in the middle third and a flurry of 10 corners, clear-cut chances were at a premium, with only two of their 14 shots testing Wladimiro Falcone in the Lecce goal. Lorenzo Pellegrini’s goal was a reward for Roma’s persistence, and the midfield pairing of Bryan Cristante and Neil El Aynaoui kept control in transition, snuffing out Lecce’s attempts to counter. The back three, led by Mancini, remained composed under sporadic pressure, ensuring the clean sheet.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Lecce
Lecce set up in a compact 4-2-3-1, conceding possession but remaining disciplined and difficult to break down. The midfield duo of Ylber Ramadani and Oumar Ngom worked tirelessly to disrupt Roma’s rhythm, while the back line, particularly Jamil Siebert and Tiago Gabriel, repelled wave after wave of attacks. Going forward, Lecce relied on quick transitions and the pace of Lameck Banda, but struggled to create sustained pressure, managing just eight shots and only two corners. Despite a spirited late push, they could not find an equalizer, but their defensive resilience was notable.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Roma’s 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to dominate possession and stretch Lecce’s defensive shape, with wing-backs Rensch and Tsimikas pushing high and providing width. The double pivot of Cristante and El Aynaoui controlled the tempo, recycling possession and breaking up Lecce’s counters. Pellegrini and Pisilli operated in the half-spaces behind Malen, linking play but often crowded out by Lecce’s compact midfield block. Lecce’s 4-2-3-1 was disciplined and reactive, with the midfield screen working hard to close passing lanes. Their attacking transitions were reliant on Banda’s pace and Štulić’s hold-up play, but with limited possession (33%) and only two corners, they struggled to sustain attacks. Tactical substitutions in the second half aimed to inject fresh legs in midfield and attack, but Roma’s structure remained intact.
Turning Point
Pellegrini’s goal in the 57th minute shifted the momentum decisively in Roma’s favor, forcing Lecce to open up and chase the game.
Man of the Match
Lorenzo Pellegrini
Scored the winning goal and was Roma’s creative spark throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AS Roma vs Lecce Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: AS Roma vs Lecce?
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Where the Model Sees Value: AS Roma vs Lecce(4)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–0
Roma's strong home defense (0.64 goals conceded per home game), Lecce's poor away attack (0.71 goals per away game), and the H2H trend (Roma clean sheets in 4 of last 5) support a 2-0 home win.
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Match Result: AS Roma Win@ 1.08
Roma are 6th, Lecce 17th; Roma have a 64% home win rate, Lecce have lost 9/14 away. H2H is heavily Roma-favored.
BTTS: No@ 1.12
Roma's home matches and Lecce's away matches both show low BTTS rates; Lecce have failed to score in 7 of 14 away games.
Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5
Roma have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of 14 home games; Lecce concede 1.43 per away game.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This AS Roma vs Lecce Prediction
AS Roma are heavy favorites at home against a struggling Lecce side. Roma's home form is solid, with a strong defensive record and an attack that, while not prolific, is efficient against weaker opposition. Lecce's away form is poor, with a low scoring rate and a leaky defense. Recent H2H history is overwhelmingly in Roma's favor, with Lecce rarely finding the net. Expect Roma to control the match, likely keeping a clean sheet and securing a routine win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Lecce: 3W/2D/9L away, only 10 goals scored in 14 away games.
Defence
- →Roma: 9W/2D/3L at home, only 9 goals conceded in 14 home games.
- →Roma have won 8 of last 10 H2H, 4 clean sheets in last 5.
- →Roma's clean sheet %: 41%; Lecce's failed to score in 50% of away games.
Match Context
- →Lecce's last 5: 2 wins, 3 losses; Roma's last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses (tougher opposition).
- →Over 2.5 goals hit in only 34% of Roma games, 38% for Lecce.
🚩 AS Roma vs Lecce Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for AS Roma and 4.6 for Lecce, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How AS Roma and Lecce Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AS Roma vs Lecce Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AS Romalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Leccelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
AS Roma vs Lecce — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: AS Roma vs Lecce
AS Roma vs Lecce Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
AS Roma wins
2
Draws
0
Lecce wins
Things to Watch: AS Roma vs Lecce
- ⚠️Roma's recent form is mixed (LDLDW), but mostly against stronger teams.
- ⚠️Lecce fighting relegation, may play defensively.
- ⚠️Some missing data for corners and fouls in recent Lecce matches.
- ⚠️Odds are very short on Roma, limiting value in main markets.
- ⚠️Injury to Bove (Roma) and Marchwiński (Lecce) have minor impact.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Roma vs Lecce: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.