Aston Villa
Newcastle
Villa Park, Birmingham
Saturday, 14 Feb 2026 at 17:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 45.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 23.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
51.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
btts — yes@ 3.4
Expected Value: 37.2%
Both teams have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game in their last 5, Newcastle have seen BTTS in all of their last 5, and Villa have failed to score only once. The odds for BTTS:Yes are generous compared to the model probability.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.4
Expected Value: 31.4%
Both teams have 100% over 2.5 in their (limited) FA Cup records this season and Newcastle's defence has conceded 2.4 per game in their last 5. The price for over 2.5 is higher than model probability suggests it should be.
1x2 — draw@ 3.5
Expected Value: 12.0%
The model sees a higher than market-implied probability for a draw, with both sides having patchy form and a history of draws in H2H (2 in last 10).
Match Analysis
Aston Villa come into this FA Cup clash in slightly better recent form than Newcastle, with two wins in their last three and a solid defensive record (0.8 conceded per game in last 5). Newcastle, however, have struggled defensively, conceding 2.4 per game in their last 5, but remain a threat in attack and have scored in every recent match. The H2H history is balanced but slightly favours Newcastle, though Villa won the most recent meeting away. Expect a tight, competitive match with Villa's home advantage and Newcastle's attacking intent suggesting both teams can score, but Villa's defence may prove decisive.
Key Factors
- ▪Villa have won 3 of their last 5 and kept 2 clean sheets.
- ▪Newcastle have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 and have BTTS in all 5.
- ▪Both teams average 1.4 goals scored per game in their last 5.
- ▪Villa's defence is significantly stronger recently (0.8 conceded per game vs 2.4 for Newcastle).
- ▪Recent H2H is balanced: Newcastle 5 wins, Villa 3, 2 draws in last 10.
- ▪No significant injuries reported for either side.
- ▪Both teams have a 100% over 2.5 rate in their FA Cup season record (albeit small sample).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ Limited FA Cup season data for both teams reduces confidence in cup-specific trends.
- ⚠️ Some recent matches lack full match stats, increasing uncertainty.
- ⚠️ Standings data is missing, so league motivation/relative strength is inferred from form only.
- ⚠️ Lineups are not available at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.