Atalanta vs Bologna Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Atalanta
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Bologna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4.33(+4% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10Late Castro Strike Lifts Bologna Past Atalanta in Bergamo
Bologna secured a crucial 1-0 away victory over Atalanta at the New Balance Arena, thanks to a late goal from Santiago Castro in the 78th minute. In a match where both sides struggled to break down the opposition for long stretches, it was Bologna who found the decisive moment, capitalizing on their greater attacking threat and composure in the final third. Atalanta, deploying a 3-4-2-1 formation, failed to register a single shot on target despite nine attempts, while Bologna’s more fluid 4-2-3-1 system allowed them to control possession (55%) and generate five shots on target. The visitors’ patience paid off late, as Castro’s finish punished the hosts’ profligacy and defensive lapse, sealing all three points for Bologna.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
78' — Goal
Santiago Castro scores the decisive goal for Bologna, finishing off a well-worked move.
1-77' — Stalemate
Both sides struggle to create clear chances, with Atalanta failing to register a shot on target.
90' — Final Whistle
Bologna see out the closing minutes to secure a hard-fought 1-0 away win.
Atalanta
Atalanta struggled to impose themselves offensively, failing to test Bologna goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski with any of their nine shots. Despite moments of promise from Charles De Ketelaere and Giacomo Raspadori, the hosts' attacking play lacked sharpness and penetration. Their 3-4-2-1 setup provided defensive solidity for much of the match, but a lack of width and creativity in midfield left them blunt going forward. Defensively, Atalanta held firm until the final quarter, but a lapse in concentration allowed Santiago Castro to snatch the winner. The home side's discipline was tested, committing 15 fouls and picking up a yellow card, but ultimately it was their inability to create clear-cut chances that proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bologna
Bologna delivered a disciplined and tactically astute performance away from home, dictating play with 55% possession and creating the better opportunities. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and effective pressing, which stifled Atalanta’s build-up. Jonathan Rowe and Lewis Ferguson provided attacking impetus, while Remo Freuler controlled the tempo from deep. The visitors' patience was rewarded in the 78th minute when Santiago Castro converted one of Bologna’s five shots on target. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, with the back four and Skorupski enjoying a relatively quiet afternoon. Bologna’s ability to manage the game and strike at the decisive moment was the difference.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Atalanta’s 3-4-2-1 formation prioritized defensive solidity, with de Roon and Éderson shielding the back three. However, the lack of width and creativity in midfield made it difficult for the hosts to penetrate Bologna’s lines, resulting in no shots on target. The attacking trio of De Ketelaere, Raspadori, and Krstović were largely isolated. Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate possession and stretch Atalanta’s defensive block, particularly through the movement of Rowe and Ferguson behind Castro. Their patient build-up and willingness to commit numbers forward eventually paid dividends, while their defensive shape limited Atalanta’s opportunities and forced turnovers in key areas.
Turning Point
Santiago Castro’s 78th-minute goal broke the deadlock and shifted momentum decisively in Bologna’s favor.
Man of the Match
Santiago Castro
His late goal decided a tight contest and capped a strong all-round display leading the line.
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Atalanta vs Bologna?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Atalanta vs Bologna(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Atalanta Win@ 1.25
Atalanta's home record (9W, 6D, 3L) and strong defensive stats, combined with Bologna's poor recent attack (0.4 goals per game last 5, failed to score in 4/5), make the home win likely, though odds are short.
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BTTS: No@ 1.2
Bologna have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, and Atalanta have kept 2 clean sheets in that span. H2H also trends under, with 3 of last 4 meetings seeing at least one team fail to score.
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Correct Score: 2–0
Model's most probable scoreline. Atalanta's attack should break through, but Bologna's blunt edge and Atalanta's defensive solidity suggest a clean sheet.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction
Atalanta host Bologna in a clash between two sides with contrasting recent fortunes. Atalanta's robust home form and defensive solidity stand out, while Bologna arrive struggling for goals and with little recent attacking threat. Expect Atalanta to control possession, create more chances, and likely keep Bologna at bay.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Atalanta's home record is strong (9W, 6D, 3L), while Bologna are better away (8W, 4D, 5L) but currently out of form.
Attack
- →Bologna have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and average just 0.4 goals per game in that span.
Defence
- →Atalanta average 1.34 goals scored and only 0.91 conceded per game this season.
- →H2H meetings often see low scores and clean sheets for Atalanta.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either team.
🚩 Atalanta vs Bologna Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Atalanta and 4.2 for Bologna, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 47% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Atalanta and Bologna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Atalanta vs Bologna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Atalantalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bolognalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Atalanta are steady but not spectacular, with just one loss in their last five and a recent clean sheet, but also two games without scoring. Bologna, meanwhile, are in a slump, winless in four and having scored only once in their last five outings, highlighting a lack of attacking threat.
Atalanta vs Bologna — Last 10 Matches
What History Says: Atalanta vs Bologna
Atalanta have dominated recent home H2Hs, winning the last two by 2-0 margins. Bologna have caused upsets in the past, but the trend is toward low-scoring games with Atalanta keeping clean sheets. Only two of the last ten meetings have seen both teams score.
Atalanta vs Bologna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Atalanta wins
1
Draws
5
Bologna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Atalanta vs Bologna
The model sees a slight edge on BTTS 'yes' due to the long odds, but the underlying stats point strongly to 'no'. The draw also offers marginal value compared to its probability, while away win odds are too short for Bologna's current form. Overall, value is limited due to short prices on the most likely outcomes.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Atalanta vs Bologna
- ⚠️Bologna's away record is decent, but their recent attacking form is very poor.
- ⚠️Atalanta's attack can be inconsistent, as seen in recent 0-0 and 0-1 home results.
- ⚠️If Bologna rediscover their scoring touch, BTTS 'no' could be at risk.
- ⚠️Odds on main markets are short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Atalanta vs Bologna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.