Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Auxerre
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Estac Troyes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Estac Troyes Win
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes: Match Preview
Auxerre enter this friendly with a patchy pre-season, having drawn 1-1 away at Sochaux and lost 2-1 at home to Orleans after an emphatic 5-2 win over St Maur Lusitanos. Their form string (DLWWW) is boosted by two Ligue 1 wins to end last season, but the current streak is just one game unbeaten, and defensive frailties have reappeared. Troyes, meanwhile, are riding a wave of momentum: four straight wins in friendlies, including a 3-0 away victory at Grenoble and a 5-2 home win over Chasselay MDA, have seen them average 3 goals per game and concede just 0.75. The visitors look sharper and more settled as they build towards their campaign.
The tactical matchup tilts towards Troyes’ in-form attack against an Auxerre defence that has managed just one clean sheet in five. Auxerre’s last five have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but they have failed to keep out even lower-tier opposition in pre-season. Troyes’ defence has been more robust, with two clean sheets in their last five and only one game where they failed to score. With both sides averaging over 2 goals per game in pre-season and a combined over 2.5 goals rate of 70%, the data points to an open contest. Notably, Auxerre have scored in every recent outing, while Troyes have been especially clinical after half-time.
Given Troyes’ momentum and Auxerre’s defensive lapses, the model expects the visitors to edge a lively encounter. While Auxerre’s head-to-head record is imposing, recent form trumps history here: Troyes’ four-match winning streak and their ability to keep clean sheets suggest they can absorb Auxerre’s attacks and strike on the counter. Expect goals at both ends, but Troyes’ sharper finishing and organisation should see them take the result.
How Auxerre and Estac Troyes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Estac Troyeslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Troyes are the form side, stringing together four consecutive wins in pre-season and posting a +9 goal difference. Auxerre, by contrast, have managed just one win in their last three friendlies and have struggled defensively, conceding five goals in that span. The momentum is firmly with the visitors heading into this clash.
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Auxerre vs Estac Troyes that most previews miss.
- 1Troyes have scored at least three goals in three of their last four friendlies, averaging 3.0 per game in pre-season.
- 2Auxerre have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches, with only one clean sheet in that period.
- 3Despite Auxerre’s strong H2H record, Troyes have won four consecutive matches, conceding just once before half-time across those games.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
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The Case For This Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Prediction
Troyes’ surge in pre-season form puts them in the driving seat, but Auxerre’s attacking output means this could be closer than the recent streaks suggest. Expect Troyes’ momentum to test Auxerre’s defensive frailties, with both sides likely to find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Head-to-head history favours Auxerre, but recent form and attacking numbers point to Troyes.
Defence
- →Troyes are on a four-match winning streak, scoring 12 and conceding just 3 in that run.
- →Auxerre have just one win in their last three friendlies, conceding five goals.
Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Estac Troyes Win
Troyes arrive with four straight wins, averaging 2.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per match in their last five, while Auxerre have managed only one win in their last three friendlies and have not kept a clean sheet in this pre-season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen at least three goals in two-thirds of their recent matches (Auxerre 66.7%, Troyes 75%), and their last five combined average is 4.6 goals per game.
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BTTS: Yes
Auxerre have scored in all of their last five, but only one clean sheet, while Troyes have failed to score just once in the same span; both teams to score has landed in four of Auxerre's last five.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
🚩 Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Auxerre and 6.3 for Estac Troyes, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
What History Says: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes
Auxerre have historically dominated this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings and losing just once. However, Troyes did notch a 2-1 friendly win in 2024 and have been more competitive in recent encounters. The H2H trend slightly favours the hosts, but recent form suggests a shift.
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Auxerre wins
2
Draws
1
Estac Troyes wins
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes
- ⚠️Pre-season friendlies can see experimental lineups and variable motivation.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds were available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lack of detailed match stats for recent friendlies increases uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Auxerre 1–2 Estac TroyesTroyes’ four-match winning run, with 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded, is the single strongest signal in the data and drives the 2-1 away win prediction. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Auxerre’s home advantage and historical dominance in this fixture outweigh current momentum, especially if Troyes rotate heavily or experiment with their lineup.
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes: Common Questions
Who will win Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
The model gives Troyes a 47% chance of victory, compared to 24% for Auxerre and 29% for the draw. Troyes’ four-match winning streak and sharper attack give them the edge despite Auxerre’s strong historical record in this fixture.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Troyes?
There’s a 56% probability of both teams scoring, with Auxerre netting in all of their last five and Troyes scoring in four of five. Defensive lapses on both sides in pre-season support the likelihood of goals at both ends.
Can Troyes’ winning run continue?
Troyes have won four straight, averaging 3 goals per match and conceding less than one per game. The model expects their momentum to continue, but notes that Auxerre’s historical home dominance is a risk factor.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.