Bologna vs Lazio Predictions
Serie A ยท Italy
Bologna
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Lazio
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.05(+7% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Late Lazio Surge Sinks Bologna at the Dall'Ara
Lazio produced a clinical late show to claim a 2-0 victory over Bologna at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, capitalizing on their chances in a tightly contested Serie A encounter. After an even first hour, the visitors broke the deadlock in the 72nd minute and sealed the points with a second goal ten minutes later, punishing Bologna's inability to convert their own attacking pressure into goals. Bologna edged possession with 53% and fired 13 shots, but only managed three on target, struggling to break down a disciplined Lazio backline. Conversely, Lazio were more efficient, registering five shots on target from nine attempts and making their moments count in the final third. Both sides finished with a yellow card apiece, but it was Lazio's sharper attacking edge and defensive solidity that proved decisive.
๐ช AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
๐ฐ Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
72' โ Goal
Daniel Maldini scores to give Lazio a 1-0 lead after a swift attacking move.
82' โ Goal
Lazio double their advantage with a second goal, assisted by Pedro, effectively sealing the win.
55' โ Yellow Card
Bologna's Simon Sohm is booked for a late challenge as tensions rise in midfield.
67' โ Yellow Card
Lazio's Adam Maruลกiฤ receives a yellow card for a tactical foul to halt a Bologna counter.
Bologna
Bologna started brightly, controlling possession and probing through the midfield trio of Simon Sohm, Nikola Moro, and Riccardo Orsolini. However, despite creating 13 shots, they rarely troubled Lazio goalkeeper Edoardo Motta, with only three efforts on target. The home side's lack of cutting edge in the final third was telling, as they failed to capitalize on their territorial advantage. After conceding the opening goal, Bologna pushed forward in search of an equalizer, but left themselves exposed at the back and were punished again on the counter. Substitutions failed to provide the desired spark, and frustration grew as the match slipped away.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Lazio
Lazio executed their game plan to perfection, absorbing Bologna's pressure and striking decisively when opportunities arose. The visitors were content to concede possession (47%) but remained compact in their 4-3-3, with the midfield trio disrupting Bologna's rhythm and launching quick transitions. Their patience paid off in the 72nd minute with a clinical finish, and they doubled their lead ten minutes later to put the game beyond doubt. Defensively, Lazio limited Bologna to just three shots on target, while their own forwards made the most of limited service.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bologna lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to dominate possession and build through the midfield, but their attacking quartet struggled to penetrate Lazio's well-drilled defense. The hosts relied on width from full-backs Nadir Zortea and Juan Miranda, yet rarely found space behind the Lazio backline. Lazio's 4-3-3 was compact and disciplined, with the midfield trio providing cover and launching quick transitions. Their patience out of possession paid dividends, as they waited for Bologna to overcommit before striking twice on the break. The lack of set-piece opportunities (just one corner each) highlighted the open, end-to-end nature of the contest.
Turning Point
Daniel Maldini's 72nd-minute goal broke the deadlock and shifted momentum decisively in Lazio's favor.
Man of the Match
Daniel Maldini
Scored the crucial opener and was a constant threat in attack, sparking Lazio's late surge.
๐ฎ Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react โ then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals ยท model says 0.80
Expected goals ยท model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
25%
Likely Scores
0-0 ยท 1-0 ยท 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above โ every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
Bologna vs Lazio Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Bologna vs Lazio?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bologna vs Lazio(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.05
Both teams have similar league positions, recent H2H meetings are draw-heavy, and both sides have strong defensive records with low-scoring trends. The model probability for a draw (0.40) is higher than the implied probability from odds (0.33), offering a positive value edge.
Read more โ
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.1
Both teams have strong under 2.5 goal trends (Bologna 48%, Lazio 28%), recent matches and H2H are low-scoring, and model probability for under 2.5 is very high (0.81).
Read more โ
BTTS: No@ 1.15
Model probability for BTTS 'no' is 0.59, both teams have kept multiple clean sheets recently, and H2H suggests low BTTS frequency.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Bologna vs Lazio Prediction
This is a tightly poised mid-table Serie A clash between Bologna and Lazio, both separated by just two points and sitting 8th and 9th in the standings. Both sides are in decent form, with Bologna slightly stronger recently. The match is likely to be a tactical, low-scoring affair, as both teams have solid defensive records and have struggled to score freely. Recent head-to-head meetings have been cagey, with three of the last four ending in draws and most featuring under 2.5 goals. Expect a disciplined, hard-fought game, with a draw the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- โRecent form: Bologna (WDLWW), Lazio (WWDLD)
Attack
- โLow-scoring trends: Bologna over 2.5 goals in 48% of games, Lazio only 28%
Defence
- โBoth teams have strong defensive records: Bologna (1.17 conceded/game), Lazio (0.97 conceded/game)
Injuries & Team News
- โNo significant injuries reported for either side
Match Context
- โH2H: 4 of last 6 meetings drawn or decided by 1 goal, 5 of last 6 under 2.5 goals
- โBologna stronger at home recently, but only 5 wins in 14 home games
- โLazio struggle away (3 wins in 14), low away goals (8 in 14)
๐ฉ Bologna vs Lazio Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Bologna and 4.4 for Lazio, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% ยท Over 10.5: 32%.
How Bologna and Lazio Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bologna vs Lazio Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolognalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet โ available after predictions are regenerated.
Laziolast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet โ available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Bologna vs Lazio โ Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack โ 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession โ 59% avg
Concerns
- โInconsistent โ 3+ losses in last 5
- โLeaky defence โ 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form โ 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid โ 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Bologna vs Lazio
Bologna vs Lazio Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Bologna wins
3
Draws
4
Lazio wins
Things to Watch: Bologna vs Lazio
- โ ๏ธSome recent match stats for shots and possession missing for Lazio, increasing uncertainty in attack/defence assessment
- โ ๏ธBoth teams' attacking output is inconsistent; a single early goal could open the game up unexpectedly
- โ ๏ธMarket odds are quite defensive (low odds on under 2.5 and BTTS no), reducing value edges in main markets
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bologna vs Lazio: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.