Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction
Premier League · England
Bournemouth
Brentford
📍 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
🗓️ Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026 at 19:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 34.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 29.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 3.5
EV: 29.5%
Both teams are closely matched in league position and form, with Bournemouth drawing 11 of 27 and Brentford not drawing away but with a high draw probability from model and recent data. The odds for a draw offer value compared to model probability.
btts — yes@ 3.5
EV: 48.5%
Model probability (51%) is much higher than the implied odds. Both teams have shown BTTS in a majority of recent matches and have similar attack/defence profiles.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.2
EV: 57.6%
Bournemouth's over 2.5 goal rate is high (59%), Brentford's is moderate (48%). Model probability is higher than the market's implied probability, suggesting value.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash between two closely matched sides. Bournemouth are in slightly better recent form and are strong at home, but Brentford have a dominant head-to-head record, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings. Both teams are relatively solid defensively in recent games, with clean sheets in 2 of their last 5, but also have attacking threats. Expect a tight, competitive match with both teams likely to score, and a draw the most probable outcome.
Key Factors
- →Bournemouth: 3W 2D in last 5, strong home form (6W 5D 2L)
- →Brentford: 3W 1D 1L in last 5, but away record is 5W 0D 8L
- →Brentford have won 7 of last 10 H2H, including 4-1 last meeting
- →Both teams average ~1.5 goals scored per game, with moderate clean sheet rates
- →Bournemouth have drawn 11 of 27 league matches
- →No significant injuries reported
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing advanced stats for shots/corners in recent games
- ⚠️Brentford's away draw rate is anomalously low, which may regress
- ⚠️Model confidence moderate due to some data gaps (e.g. partial match stats)
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed at time of analysis
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.