Bradford vs Burnley Predictions
League Cup · England
Bradford
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Burnley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bradford Win
Match Result
7.5/10Bradford Stun Burnley on Penalties After Goalless League Cup Epic
Bradford City produced a cup upset at Valley Parade, holding Championship side Burnley to a tense 0-0 draw over 120 minutes before prevailing in a dramatic penalty shootout. Despite being under sustained pressure throughout the match, the League Two hosts defended doggedly and rode their luck at times, with goalkeeper Jon McCracken making several crucial interventions. Burnley dominated possession and racked up 23 shots, but their profligacy in front of goal ultimately cost them as Bradford held firm. The match followed a classic cup narrative: Burnley’s technical superiority and 68% possession yielded plenty of territory, but Bradford’s compact 3-4-2-1 shape frustrated the visitors and limited clear-cut chances. As extra time wore on, both teams tired, but neither could find a breakthrough, sending the tie to penalties where Bradford held their nerve to progress.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
32' — Yellow Card
Henry Cartwright booked for a tactical foul to halt a Burnley counter.
76' — Yellow Card
Ibou Touray shown yellow for persistent fouling as Burnley pressed for a winner.
90' — Full Time
Regulation time ends goalless after Burnley fail to convert late pressure.
120' — End of Extra Time
Still no breakthrough as both sides tire and defences hold firm.
PEN' — Penalty Shootout
Bradford win the shootout after holding their nerve from the spot.
Bradford
Bradford delivered a disciplined and spirited defensive performance, soaking up waves of Burnley pressure and showing impressive organisation in their 3-4-2-1 formation. Despite seeing just 32% of the ball and conceding 23 shots, they limited Burnley to only 6 on target and defended their box with real determination. Their attacking forays were limited but purposeful, registering 16 shots and forcing 5 corners. The hosts also kept their composure during the penalty shootout, converting their spot-kicks with aplomb.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burnley
Burnley controlled the tempo for long stretches, enjoying 68% possession and launching 23 shots, but they struggled to break down Bradford’s deep block. Their creative midfield trio probed for openings, but too often the final ball was lacking or the finishing wayward. Mike Trésor and Zeki Amdouni were lively in spells, but Armando Broja was largely isolated up front. Burnley’s set-piece threat yielded 14 corners, but they failed to convert any into goals. Ultimately, their inability to turn dominance into goals proved costly as they fell short in the penalty shootout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bradford set up in a disciplined 3-4-2-1, keeping their wing-backs deep and compacting the central areas to frustrate Burnley's more expansive 4-2-3-1. The home side's back three, marshalled by Pennington, rarely ventured forward, focusing on blocking passing lanes and clearing crosses. In midfield, Lapslie and Cartwright worked tirelessly to disrupt Burnley's rhythm, while Phillips and Swan provided occasional outlets on the break. Burnley’s approach relied on patient buildup and width from full-backs Roberts and Pires, but the congested central areas limited their creative midfielders’ impact. Despite 14 corners, Burnley’s set-piece routines lacked invention, and the introduction of fresh legs failed to break Bradford’s resolve. As the match wore on, Burnley committed more men forward, but Bradford’s defensive shape remained intact, forcing the tie to penalties.
Turning Point
The penalty shootout, where Bradford’s composure and McCracken’s presence proved decisive after 120 goalless minutes.
Man of the Match
Jon McCracken
Kept Bradford in the tie with several key saves and exuded confidence during the shootout.
Bradford vs Burnley: Match Preview
Bradford come into this League Cup clash in the midst of a purple patch, unbeaten in their last five outings and buoyed by consecutive 2-0 home victories over Peterborough and Rochdale. Their attack has found a rhythm, with Will Swan and N. Powell both on the scoresheet in recent matches, while the defence has delivered three clean sheets across this stretch. Burnley, meanwhile, are searching for their first win in five, having surrendered leads and struggled to keep opponents out, most recently conceding twice after the 80th minute to draw 2-2 with West Ham.
The tactical matchup tilts towards Bradford’s momentum-driven approach. They’ve averaged 2.6 goals per game in their last five, with a marked tendency to grow into matches—nine of their last 13 goals have come after the break. Burnley’s defensive frailties are evident, conceding 2.2 per game recently and failing to keep a clean sheet, while their attack has only sporadically sparked, averaging just 1.2 goals per match. Bradford’s set-piece prowess is another factor, as they’ve averaged 7 corners per competitive home fixture, compared to Burnley’s 1 per game in their recent run.
The model expects Bradford’s form and home advantage to outweigh the divisional gap, projecting a narrow win for the League One side. Burnley’s vulnerability late in games and lack of clean sheets suggest they’ll struggle to contain a Bradford attack brimming with confidence, though the visitors’ ability to find a goal means a close contest is likely.
How Bradford and Burnley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bradford vs Burnley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bradfordlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burnleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bradford are riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in their last five and posting back-to-back 2-0 home wins in competitive fixtures. Their attack has been prolific, with 13 goals scored and none conceded in their last two home matches. Burnley, by contrast, are winless in five, conceding 11 goals and showing a worrying trend of late defensive lapses.
Bradford vs Burnley — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Bradford vs Burnley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bradford vs Burnley that most previews miss.
- 1Bradford have scored nine of their last 13 goals in the second half, highlighting a strong finishing trend.
- 2Burnley have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches, despite not winning any of them.
- 3Bradford have averaged 7 corners per home game in their two most recent competitive fixtures, indicating set-piece threat.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Bradford vs Burnley?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Bradford vs Burnley Prediction
Bradford enter this tie riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in five and fresh from back-to-back 2-0 home wins, while Burnley are searching for answers after a five-match winless run marked by late defensive lapses and a lack of clean sheets. The home side's attacking trio have been consistently productive, with 13 goals in their last five, and their defensive structure has delivered three clean sheets in that same period. Burnley, by contrast, have conceded at least once in every recent outing and struggled to impose themselves, particularly away from home. Statistically, this is a clash of a high-momentum League One side against a Championship outfit whose form has flatlined. Bradford's attack has averaged 2.6 goals per game in their last five, while Burnley have shipped 2.2 per match and managed just 1.2 in reply. Notably, Bradford have been especially effective after the break, scoring nine of their last 13 goals in the second half, while Burnley have conceded late on, as seen in their 2-2 draw with West Ham where both goals came after the 80th minute. Set-piece threat also tilts towards Bradford, who are averaging 7 corners per home game in competitive fixtures. Given the form lines, the model expects Bradford to edge a competitive contest, with their attacking confidence and defensive discipline at home likely to prove decisive. Burnley’s recent habit of conceding in the second half and their lack of clean sheets suggest they will struggle to keep Bradford at bay, though their own ability to find a late goal means the visitors should not be discounted entirely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bradford have won four of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 4.
- →Burnley are winless in their last five, conceding 2.2 goals per game and failing to keep a clean sheet.
- →Bradford have kept three clean sheets in their last five and have not failed to score in any of those games.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bradford vs Burnley(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bradford Win
Bradford have won four of their last five, scoring 13 and conceding just 4, while Burnley are winless in five and have not kept a clean sheet. The home side's momentum and defensive solidity give them a genuine edge.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Burnley have seen both teams score in four of their last five, and Bradford have failed to score in none of their last five, suggesting both attacks are likely to find the net.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Bradford's last five have averaged 3.4 goals per game, and Burnley's defensive frailty (2.2 conceded per game over the same stretch) points towards another open contest.
Read more ↓
More League Cup Predictions
🚩 Bradford vs Burnley Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Bradford and 5 for Burnley, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
What History Says: Bradford vs Burnley
There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup, making it necessary to lean heavily on recent form and statistical trends from both sides.
Bradford vs Burnley Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Bradford wins
1
Draws
0
Burnley wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bradford vs Burnley
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value calculations cannot be completed. However, the model's probabilities suggest Bradford are being underrated by conventional wisdom, given their current momentum and Burnley's struggles. If odds later price Burnley as strong favourites, value would likely sit with the home side or double chance markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bradford vs Burnley
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data is available, limiting context for cross-division matchups.
- ⚠️Both teams' season sample sizes are extremely small, with only one competitive fixture each.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bradford 2–1 BurnleyThe model calls a 2-1 win for Bradford, with their recent form—four wins in five and three clean sheets—standing out as the clearest indicator. The main risk is underestimating Burnley’s ability to raise their level for a cup tie, particularly if their attack clicks or Bradford’s momentum proves unsustainable against higher-tier opposition.
Bradford vs Burnley: Common Questions
Who will win Bradford vs Burnley?
Bradford are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 20% for Burnley and 36% for the draw. The home side's strong recent form and defensive solidity tip the balance in their favour.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Burnley?
There is a 58% probability of both teams scoring, as Burnley have seen BTTS in four of their last five and Bradford have not failed to score in any of their recent matches.
Can Bradford's winning run continue against higher-tier Burnley?
Bradford's momentum is significant, with four wins in five and three clean sheets, but facing a Championship side is a step up. The model still gives them a strong chance, projecting a 2-1 win based on their recent performances.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bradford vs Burnley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.