Burnley vs Bournemouth Prediction
Premier League · England
Burnley
Bournemouth
📍 Turf Moor, Burnley
🗓️ Saturday, 14 Mar 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 17.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 51.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 3.75
EV: 17.3%
Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense (Burnley: 58 conceded, Bournemouth: 46 conceded in 29 games). Burnley have BTTS in 4 of their last 5, and Bournemouth's away games often see goals at both ends. The model probability (44%) is significantly above the implied odds (26.7%).
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.8
EV: 14.7%
Burnley have a season over 2.5 rate of 51.7%, Bournemouth 55.2%. Both teams' defenses are leaky, and Burnley's recent home games have seen high scores. Odds for over 2.5 are generous versus model probability.
1x2 — draw@ 3.75
EV: 5.3%
Bournemouth have drawn 13 of 29 this season and 4 of their last 5. Burnley have also drawn 7. The model gives a higher draw probability (32%) than the market (26.7%).
Match Analysis
Burnley, fighting for survival, host a mid-table Bournemouth side at Turf Moor. Burnley have struggled defensively all season, conceding an average of 2 goals per game, and their home form is poor (2W, 4D, 8L). Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five, but have also drawn three in a row and are not prolific scorers recently. Both teams have a tendency for games to go over 2.5 goals and for both teams to score, but Bournemouth's recent matches have tightened defensively. Expect a competitive game with Bournemouth's away quality and Burnley's desperation leading to a narrow away win, but the draw and goals markets offer value.
Key Factors
- →Burnley have lost 2 in a row and have just 4 wins in 29 matches.
- →Burnley concede 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 and have the league's 2nd-worst defense.
- →Bournemouth are unbeaten in 5 (DDDWD), but have drawn 3 straight.
- →Bournemouth's away record is mixed (3W, 6D, 5L), but they score 1.64 goals per away game.
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 and BTTS rates this season.
- →Recent H2H is balanced but 3 of last 4 meetings saw both teams score.
- →No major injury news for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Burnley's home attack is inconsistent, and they have failed to score in 1 of last 5.
- ⚠️Bournemouth's recent games have been low-scoring draws, suggesting possible tightening up.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for Bournemouth's last 5 (shots, cards) may slightly reduce confidence in set piece/card projections.
- ⚠️Premier League relegation pressure could lead to unpredictable performance swings.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.