Burnley vs Brentford Prediction
Premier League · England
Burnley
Brentford
📍 Turf Moor, Burnley
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Feb 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 13.0%
Draw: 25.0%
Away: 62.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
79.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — away@ 1.35
EV: -4.0%
Brentford are 7th and in much better form than 19th-placed Burnley. Brentford have won 5 away matches, Burnley have only 2 home wins. Brentford's attack is more consistent and Burnley have the league's second-worst defense.
btts — no@ 1.18
EV: -6.0%
Burnley have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and average only 1.07 goals/game. Brentford have 2 clean sheets in last 5, and Burnley have the lowest home scoring record. H2H also trends low-scoring for Burnley.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.22
EV: -16.0%
Both teams have under 2.5 in more than half their recent games. Burnley struggle to create chances and Brentford's away games average 2.92 goals but recent form is trending lower. Defensive approach likely from Burnley.
Match Analysis
Burnley, deep in relegation trouble and with only two home wins all season, welcome a Brentford side sitting comfortably in 7th. Burnley have struggled for goals and defensive solidity, while Brentford have shown resilience on the road and are coming off a strong run of results, despite a recent home loss. Expect Brentford to control the match, limit Burnley's chances, and likely keep a clean sheet. Goals may be at a premium, with Brentford's superior attacking quality likely to make the difference.
Key Factors
- →Burnley have the second-worst defensive record in the league (1.93 conceded/game).
- →Brentford are 7th, Burnley are 19th with only 4 wins in 27.
- →Burnley have only 2 home wins (13 games). Brentford have 5 away wins.
- →Burnley average just 1.07 goals/game; Brentford 1.48.
- →Burnley failed to score in 2 of last 5; Brentford kept 2 clean sheets in last 5.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
- →Recent H2H: Brentford won 3-1 in November.
- →Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in last 5; Brentford have 2.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Burnley are in desperate need of points and may play more aggressively than usual.
- ⚠️Brentford's away defense is not elite (22 conceded in 13 away), so Burnley could find a goal.
- ⚠️Some recent Burnley home matches have seen goals at both ends.
- ⚠️No recent lineup or injury surprises, but late team news could affect probabilities.
- ⚠️Some data (shots, xG) is missing for Burnley's last 4 matches, slightly reducing confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.