Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Casa Pia
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Santa Clara
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 1.09
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Expected goals · model says 0.45
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 0–1
Santa Clara have a better defensive record, more clean sheets, and have won three of the last four H2H meetings. Casa Pia's attack is very poor (0.6 goals/game last 5), while Santa Clara rarely score more than once away. Low-scoring, narrow away win is the likeliest scenario.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.15
Both teams struggle in attack and have high draw rates (Casa Pia 10 draws in 28, Santa Clara 7 in 29). The probability of a draw is relatively high in this match-up.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.09
Both teams have low over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 50%, Santa Clara 34.5%), and recent form points to low-scoring games. Both average under 1 goal scored per game over the season.
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More Primeira Liga Predictions
The Case For This Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction
This is a relegation six-pointer between two of the league's lowest scorers. Casa Pia are winless in their last five and have the league's worst defence, but Santa Clara's away attack is also weak. Santa Clara have shown better form recently and have dominated recent H2H meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this season. Expect a tight, low-scoring game where a single goal could decide it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams have high draw rates and low attacking output.
Defence
- →Casa Pia: 0.6 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game in last 5; just 1 clean sheet.
- →Santa Clara: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game in last 5; 3 clean sheets.
- →Casa Pia home: 2 wins in 13, 17 scored, 23 conceded.
- →Santa Clara away: 2 wins in 14, 13 scored, 21 conceded.
- →Head-to-head: Santa Clara have won 3 of last 4, all with clean sheets.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported.
🚩 Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Casa Pia and 5.2 for Santa Clara, for an expected total of 10.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 76% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Casa Pia and Santa Clara Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Casa Pialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Santa Claralast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Casa Pia wins
1
Draws
3
Santa Clara wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
- ⚠️Low attacking quality increases draw and low-goal variance.
- ⚠️Casa Pia's home record is poor, but Santa Clara's away record is not strong either.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds heavily favor Santa Clara, but model suggests a closer contest.
- ⚠️No lineup or late injury news available; check closer to kickoff.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.