Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction
Premier League · England
Chelsea
Burnley
📍 Stamford Bridge, London
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
3 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 81.0%
Draw: 14.0%
Away: 5.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
83.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 2.85
EV: 18.9%
Chelsea's attack is in strong form (2.4 goals/game last 5), Burnley have conceded 32 goals in 13 away games (2.46/game), and Chelsea often score multiple at home. Model probability (0.54) exceeds implied probability (0.351), indicating value.
1x2 — home@ 1.04
EV: -1.4%
Chelsea are heavy favorites at home, unbeaten in last 5, Burnley have lost 9/13 away and have a -23 goal difference. However, odds are very short, so value is limited.
Match Analysis
Chelsea host Burnley at Stamford Bridge in a fixture that heavily favors the home side. Chelsea are in strong form, unbeaten in their last five league matches, and have a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game recently. Burnley, meanwhile, are struggling near the bottom of the table, with a poor away record and the league's second-worst defense. The head-to-head record is also overwhelmingly in Chelsea's favor, with Burnley winless in the last 10 meetings. Expect Chelsea to dominate possession and chances, with a clean sheet likely.
Key Factors
- →Chelsea's last 5: WDWLW, 2.4 goals scored/game, only 1 clean sheet but facing a weak Burnley attack
- →Burnley's away record: 2W 2D 9L, 32 conceded in 13 away, 1.23 goals scored/game
- →Chelsea have won 7 and drawn 3 of last 10 H2H vs Burnley
- →Chelsea's home form: 6W 4D 3L, 22 scored in 13
- →Burnley have failed to score in several away games and have a low clean sheet rate (11.5%)
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Burnley's last 5 match stats missing; model relies on season averages for away team
- ⚠️Chelsea's defense can concede, but Burnley's attack is weak
- ⚠️Odds on Chelsea are very short; main value is in goals market
- ⚠️No major injuries reported for either side
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.