Como vs AS Roma Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Como
Full Time
AS Roma
📍 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Mar 2026 at 17:00
Match Result
7.9/10Como Battle Back to Edge 10-Man Roma in Dramatic Serie A Clash
Como overturned an early deficit to secure a vital 2-1 victory over AS Roma at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, in a match defined by their dominance in possession and a crucial red card for the visitors. Roma struck first in the 7th minute, but Como, undeterred, gradually asserted control, peppering the Roma goal with 22 shots and finally breaking through in the second half. Goals from Como in the 59th and 79th minutes sealed the comeback, as Roma struggled to cope after being reduced to ten men. Despite Roma's early lead and resolute defending, Como's relentless pressure—reflected in their 66% possession and 7 shots on target—eventually proved decisive. Roma, limited to just 3 shots all match, were forced onto the back foot, especially after a red card further tilted the balance. The result lifts Como and underlines their growing confidence, while Roma are left to rue their discipline and inability to hold onto their advantage.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
Donyell Malen gives Roma an early lead, finishing a swift attacking move.
59' — Goal
Como equalize after sustained pressure, with Maxence Caqueret involved in the buildup.
65' — Red Card
Roma reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum decisively in Como's favor.
79' — Goal
Como complete the turnaround with a second goal, capitalizing on their numerical advantage.
Como
Como delivered a commanding performance, especially after falling behind early. Their patient build-up and midfield control allowed them to dictate the tempo, with Maxence Caqueret and Martin Baturina orchestrating attacks. The home side's persistence paid off with two second-half goals, and their 22 total shots showcased their attacking intent. Defensively, they remained composed, limiting Roma to just a single shot on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AS Roma
Roma began brightly, capitalizing on an early opportunity to take the lead in the 7th minute. However, their inability to maintain possession (just 34%) and a lack of attacking threat—managing only 3 shots, with 1 on target—left them vulnerable. The situation worsened after a red card, forcing them into a defensive shell. Despite some resolute defending and 18 fouls committed to break up Como's rhythm, they ultimately succumbed to sustained pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, but Como's superior midfield interplay and use of width allowed them to dominate possession and territory. Their wing-backs pushed high, stretching Roma's back three and creating overloads in wide areas. Como's pressing forced errors from Roma, who struggled to build from the back and were pinned deep for long spells. Roma, after the red card, retreated into a low block, relying on counter-attacks that never materialized. Substitutions from both sides aimed to inject energy, but Como's tactical flexibility and ability to recycle possession were decisive.
Turning Point
The red card for Roma in the 65th minute, which left them outnumbered and unable to withstand Como's relentless attacks.
Man of the Match
Maxence Caqueret
Dominated midfield, orchestrated Como's attacks, and played a key role in both goals.
Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 36.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 26.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
63.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
1x2 — draw@ 3.3
EV: 25.4%
Both teams are level on points, have similar defensive records, and recent form is steady but not explosive. Como's home games and Roma's away games tend to be tight, and the draw probability is higher than the odds imply.
Match Analysis
This is a high-stakes clash between two teams level on points in the Serie A top five. Como are in strong form (WDWWD), particularly at home, while Roma have been inconsistent away (7W 1D 6L). Both sides boast excellent defensive records (0.75 goals conceded per game) and clean sheet rates above 42%. Recent matches for both have been low-scoring, and H2H history is balanced with all matches finishing under 2.5 goals. Expect a tight, tactical battle with few clear chances, where a draw is the most likely outcome.
Key Factors
- →Both teams have identical points (51) and almost identical defensive records.
- →Como have lost only 2 of 14 at home; Roma have lost 6 of 14 away.
- →Last 5 averages: Como 1.6 scored/0.6 conceded, Roma 2.2 scored/1.4 conceded, but both have strong season defensive numbers.
- →H2H: All three meetings since Como's promotion have been under 2.5 goals.
- →Low over 2.5% season rates (Como 42.86%, Roma 32.14%), high clean sheet rates.
- →Bookmaker odds overrate Como; model sees draw as best value.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing detailed stats for certain recent matches (shots, lineups).
- ⚠️Small sample size for H2H (3 matches).
- ⚠️Roma's away form is volatile (high variance).
- ⚠️Both teams may play cautiously due to table position.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.