Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Cracovia Krakow
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Korona Kielce
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 2.7(+4% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
25%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 2.7
Both teams have drawn a high proportion of matches (Cracovia 14/33, Korona 9/33), and recent form plus H2H trends point to a cagey, low-scoring encounter. Model probability (41%) slightly exceeds the implied odds (37%).
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The Case For This Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction
This fixture features two sides with nearly identical records and goal differences, both hovering just above the relegation zone. Cracovia Krakow are in a run of four consecutive draws, struggling to turn performances into wins, while Korona Kielce have mixed results but also tend to draw or narrowly lose away. Expect a tactical, low-risk match with few clear chances and a strong likelihood of a stalemate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cracovia have drawn four straight matches, three of which were low-scoring.
- →Korona's away record is poor (4W, 4D, 8L) and they average only 1 goal scored per away game.
Injuries & Team News
- →Neither side has key injuries, so full squads are expected.
Match Context
- →Both teams' season over 2.5 goal % is low (Cracovia 48%, Korona 39%).
- →Head-to-head meetings are typically tight, with 5 of last 10 ending in draws or one-goal margins.
🚩 Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.7 corners for Cracovia Krakow and 4.6 for Korona Kielce, for an expected total of 11.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 57%.
How Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cracovia Krakowlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Korona Kielcelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Cracovia Krakow are on a run of four consecutive draws, showing defensive resilience but struggling in attack with just one goal per game on average in their last five. Korona Kielce recently picked up a win but have only one win in their last five, with low scoring and a tendency to concede late. Both teams enter this match with little momentum and a tendency to settle for draws.
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce
Recent head-to-head clashes have been tight and low-scoring, with three of the last five ending in draws and only one fixture in the last ten seeing more than two goals. Cracovia have a slight historical edge, but Korona have managed to avoid defeat in several recent trips to Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Cracovia Krakow wins
3
Draws
2
Korona Kielce wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce
The model sees marginal value on the draw outcome, with a probability slightly above the bookmaker's implied odds. There is no value in the heavily favored 'under 2.5' or 'BTTS no' markets, as the odds are too short compared to the model's probabilities. Overall, this is a match to approach with caution given the lack of clear value and the high draw probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce
- ⚠️Low attacking output from both teams increases draw probability but also raises the risk of a single goal swinging the result.
- ⚠️Lack of detailed player-level injury or suspension data for this round.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on main markets are tight, limiting value opportunities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.