CSKA Sofia vs OFI Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
CSKA Sofia
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
OFI
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: CSKA Sofia Win
Match Result
7.2/10OFI Stun CSKA Sofia in Sofia with Clinical 2-0 Europa League Win
OFI produced a disciplined and clinical performance to claim a 2-0 away victory over CSKA Sofia at the Vasil Levski National Stadium, taking a vital step forward in the UEFA Europa League. The Greek side struck in both halves, first breaking the deadlock in the 36th minute and then sealing the result with a second goal in the 78th, leaving the Bulgarian hosts frustrated and unable to find a way back into the contest. CSKA Sofia struggled to break down OFI's compact defensive setup, despite fielding a five-man backline and three central midfielders. The hosts saw three players booked as their frustration grew, while OFI remained largely in control, conceding just one yellow card and managing the game expertly after taking the lead. The result underlines OFI's growing European pedigree and leaves CSKA Sofia with work to do in the return leg.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
36' — Goal
OFI open the scoring, taking the lead with a well-worked move.
45' — Yellow Card
CSKA Sofia pick up a yellow card as frustration grows before halftime.
60' — Yellow Card
Second CSKA Sofia player booked as the hosts chase an equalizer.
70' — Yellow Card
Third yellow for CSKA Sofia, reflecting their increasing desperation.
78' — Goal
OFI double their lead, effectively sealing the result.
85' — Yellow Card
OFI receive their only booking of the night while managing the closing stages.
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia set up in a 5-3-2 formation, aiming for defensive solidity and midfield control, but struggled to create clear chances and failed to register a goal. Despite a combative midfield featuring Cătălin Itu, James Eto'o, and Max Ebong, the hosts lacked penetration in the final third. Their frustration was evident, with three players picking up yellow cards as they chased the game. The forward pairing of Ioannis Pittas and Leandro Godoy was largely isolated, unable to break through OFI's disciplined three-man defence. CSKA Sofia's inability to respond after conceding the opener and a second late goal ultimately saw them fall short at home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
OFI
OFI executed their 3-4-3 game plan to perfection, absorbing pressure and striking at key moments to secure a precious away win. The back three of Sielis, Poungouras, and Nikolaou kept the CSKA front line quiet, while the midfield duo of Androutsos and Bouchalakis provided control and composure. After taking the lead in the 36th minute, OFI managed the tempo of the match, conceding just one yellow card and looking comfortable defensively. The second goal in the 78th minute was the result of a swift attacking move, effectively killing off the contest and demonstrating OFI's clinical edge.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
CSKA Sofia's 5-3-2 formation was designed for defensive stability, but it left their attack lacking width and support, especially as OFI's three-man backline matched up well against the hosts' forwards. The midfield trio worked hard but often found themselves bypassed as OFI looked to hit on the break. OFI's 3-4-3 system provided balance, with wingbacks supporting both defense and attack, and the midfield pairing of Androutsos and Bouchalakis controlling the tempo. The Greek side's tactical discipline was evident, maintaining shape and composure even as CSKA Sofia pressed forward in search of a goal. OFI's ability to strike at key moments—once in each half—highlighted their efficiency and organization, while CSKA Sofia's lack of tactical flexibility after falling behind proved costly.
Turning Point
OFI's opening goal in the 36th minute shifted the momentum, forcing CSKA Sofia to chase the game and exposing them to the decisive second goal.
Man of the Match
Andreas Bouchalakis
Controlled midfield proceedings, broke up CSKA attacks, and set the tempo for OFI's victory.
CSKA Sofia vs OFI: Match Preview
CSKA Sofia approach this Europa League clash with momentum firmly on their side, having won four of their last five matches and scoring freely—14 goals in that span. Their only recent blemish, a 1-3 home defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv, was quickly erased by a 5-0 rout of Botev Vratsa. OFI, meanwhile, are coming off a run of three straight defeats in pre-season friendlies, conceding nine goals and struggling to find defensive stability. With no competitive matches since May, OFI's readiness for this step up in intensity is a major question.
Statistically, the matchup tilts heavily towards the hosts. CSKA Sofia's attack has averaged 2.8 goals per game in their last five, and they've kept three clean sheets in that stretch. OFI's defence has been porous, shipping at least two goals in each of their last three, and their last clean sheet came in the Greek league months ago. The Bulgarian side have also shown a knack for early goals—six of their last 14 have come in the first half—while OFI's recent goals have tended to arrive late, often when the contest is already beyond reach. Discipline could play a role, with OFI averaging 2.4 yellow cards per match in their last five.
Given CSKA Sofia's current trajectory and home advantage, the model expects them to dictate proceedings from the outset. OFI's lack of recent competitive action and defensive issues suggest they may struggle to contain the hosts' attack. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, with CSKA's form and offensive output the decisive factors, though OFI's ability to score late means a clean sheet is not assured.
How CSKA Sofia and OFI Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CSKA Sofia vs OFI Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
CSKA Sofialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
OFIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CSKA Sofia are in the midst of an impressive run, winning four of their last five matches and scoring 14 goals, including a recent 5-0 victory. OFI, by contrast, are on a downward trajectory, having lost three consecutive friendlies and conceding nine goals in those games. The home side's momentum and attacking sharpness stand in stark contrast to OFI's current defensive frailties.
CSKA Sofia vs OFI — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CSKA Sofia vs OFI that most previews miss.
- 1CSKA Sofia have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.8 goals per game.
- 2OFI have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding nine goals in their last three alone.
- 3Six of CSKA Sofia's last 14 goals have come before half-time, highlighting their fast starts.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: CSKA Sofia vs OFI?
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The Case For This CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction
CSKA Sofia enter this Europa League tie riding a wave of momentum, having won four of their last five matches and netting 14 goals in the process. Their only recent slip came against Maccabi Tel Aviv, but they responded emphatically with a 5-0 thrashing of Botev Vratsa. OFI, by contrast, are searching for rhythm after three straight friendly defeats, conceding nine goals in that stretch and looking vulnerable at the back. The contrast in recent form is stark. CSKA Sofia's attack has been relentless, averaging 2.8 goals per game over their last five, while their defence has kept three clean sheets in that span. OFI's defensive frailty is highlighted by conceding at least two goals in each of their last three, and their last clean sheet dates back to the end of their league campaign. Set-piece and discipline data is limited, but OFI's 2.4 yellow cards per match in recent friendlies suggest they could struggle with CSKA's direct approach. Expect CSKA to start on the front foot, seeking an early breakthrough—six of their last 14 goals have come before half-time. OFI's only recent attacking threat has come late in games, but with their current trajectory, a comeback looks unlikely. The model expects the Bulgarian side's form and home advantage to carry them through, most likely by a narrow but deserved margin.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →CSKA Sofia have averaged 2.8 goals per game in their last five, while OFI have allowed 2.6 per match over the same span.
Defence
- →CSKA Sofia have won four of their last five matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding just four.
- →OFI have lost three consecutive friendlies, conceding nine goals and failing to keep a clean sheet.
Where the Model Sees Value: CSKA Sofia vs OFI(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: CSKA Sofia Win
CSKA Sofia have won four of their last five matches, scoring 14 goals in that span, while OFI arrive on a three-match losing run in pre-season friendlies and have conceded 9 in their last three. The home side's momentum and attacking output, especially at home, make them strong favourites.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
CSKA Sofia's last five have averaged 3.6 total goals, and OFI's friendlies have seen 3 or more in four of their last five, with both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities.
Read more ↓
More UEFA Europa League Predictions
🚩 CSKA Sofia vs OFI Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for CSKA Sofia and 4.3 for OFI, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 33%.
What History Says: CSKA Sofia vs OFI
There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup, so there are no historical trends or dominant patterns to inform expectations between CSKA Sofia and OFI.
CSKA Sofia vs OFI Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
CSKA Sofia wins
0
Draws
2
OFI wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: CSKA Sofia vs OFI
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value assessment is limited. However, the model's strong lean towards CSKA Sofia is driven by their recent form and attacking output, which would likely make them a shorter price than a season-average model might suggest. The over 2.5 goals market also appears attractive given both teams' recent goal trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: CSKA Sofia vs OFI
- ⚠️OFI's last competitive match data is from May; recent friendlies may not reflect true competitive level.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or current league standings are available, limiting context for historical matchup and motivation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CSKA Sofia 2–1 OFIThe model projects a 2-1 win for CSKA Sofia, with the strongest signal coming from their four wins in five and 14 goals scored in that period. The main risk is that OFI, despite their poor friendly form, may raise their level for competitive European action and exploit any overconfidence from the hosts.
CSKA Sofia vs OFI: Common Questions
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs OFI?
CSKA Sofia are favoured with a 53% probability of victory, based on their four wins in the last five matches and strong attacking numbers. OFI's win probability is just 20%, reflecting their three consecutive friendly defeats and defensive struggles.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs OFI?
There's a 54% chance of both teams scoring, as CSKA Sofia have conceded in two of their last five, and OFI have found the net in four of their last five despite their losses.
Can CSKA Sofia's winning run continue?
CSKA Sofia have won four of their last five and averaged 2.8 goals per game in that span, so momentum is clearly with them. The model gives them an 80% chance of avoiding defeat (1X double chance), with their home form and attacking output the key drivers.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CSKA Sofia vs OFI: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.