Cuiaba vs CRB Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Cuiaba
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
CRB
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 2.9(+9% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Cuiabá Clinch 2-0 Win Over CRB With First-Half Double at Arena Pantanal
Cuiabá produced a clinical first-half display to secure a 2-0 victory over CRB at Arena Pantanal, capitalizing on their chances despite conceding the lion’s share of possession. The hosts struck twice in quick succession before the interval, taking control of the match and forcing CRB to chase the game. While CRB enjoyed 60% of the ball, their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly, as they managed just four shots on target from 14 attempts. Cuiabá, meanwhile, were ruthless in transition and made their 40% possession count, firing eight shots on target and winning seven corners. The home side’s disciplined defensive structure and sharp attacking play in the first half laid the foundation for a deserved win, as CRB struggled to break them down and left Cuiabá’s goalkeeper Marcelo Carné relatively untroubled throughout.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
34' — Goal
Vinicius Peixoto opens the scoring for Cuiabá, finishing off a swift move to give the hosts the lead.
38' — Goal
Rodrigo Rodrigues doubles Cuiabá’s advantage just four minutes later, capitalizing on defensive hesitation from CRB.
45' — Yellow Card
Cuiabá pick up their first booking as they look to protect their lead before halftime.
67' — Yellow Card
A second yellow card for Cuiabá as the home side continue to disrupt CRB’s attacking flow.
Cuiaba
Cuiabá executed their game plan to perfection, soaking up pressure and striking decisively during a dominant spell late in the first half. Their 4-1-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity, while quick transitions and effective use of width created high-quality chances. The midfield, led by Raul and Pepê, worked tirelessly to disrupt CRB’s rhythm and launch counterattacks. Defensively, Cuiabá remained organized, conceding few clear-cut opportunities and maintaining composure even as CRB pushed forward in the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
CRB
CRB dominated possession with 60% and attempted to dictate the tempo through their 4-3-3 formation, but struggled to convert their territorial advantage into genuine scoring opportunities. Despite firing 14 shots, only four were on target, highlighting a lack of precision in the final third. The attacking trio of Thiaguinho, Mikael, and Douglas Baggio found it difficult to break through Cuiabá’s compact defense, and the midfield trio could not provide the creative spark needed to unlock the hosts.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cuiabá’s 4-1-4-1 formation provided a solid defensive base, with Raul shielding the back four and allowing the midfield quartet to press and spring forward on the break. The hosts focused on quick transitions, exploiting the spaces left by CRB’s advanced full-backs. Their seven corners and eight shots on target underline their threat from both open play and set pieces. CRB, in contrast, lined up in a 4-3-3, aiming to control possession and stretch Cuiabá’s defensive lines. However, their build-up play was too often ponderous, and they lacked the incisive passing required to break down a well-organized defense. Despite making tactical adjustments in the second half, CRB’s inability to penetrate centrally or create overloads in wide areas limited their effectiveness.
Turning Point
The four-minute spell between the 34th and 38th minutes, when Cuiabá scored twice, decisively shifted the momentum and left CRB chasing the game.
Man of the Match
Vinicius Peixoto
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with energy and intelligence, setting the tone for Cuiabá’s victory.
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
12%
BTTS: Yes
20%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cuiaba vs CRB Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Cuiaba vs CRB?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cuiaba vs CRB(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 2.9
Both teams have a high draw rate (Cuiaba 7 draws in 10, CRB 2 in 10), Cuiaba are extremely low-scoring but defensively solid, while CRB's recent form is strong but their away record is mixed. The model sees a higher chance of a draw than the odds imply.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Cuiaba vs CRB Prediction
This is a clash of styles: Cuiaba's ultra-defensive, low-scoring approach faces a CRB side in hot attacking form but with a leaky defense. Cuiaba have drawn 7 of 10 league matches and failed to win at home, while CRB have won 4 of their last 5 but concede regularly on the road. Expect a cagey, low-scoring encounter where a single goal could decide it, but a draw is highly likely given Cuiaba's inability to break teams down and CRB's inconsistency away.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head at Cuiaba's ground heavily favors the hosts historically, but current form suggests a much tighter contest.
Attack
- →CRB are in excellent form (WWDWW in last 5), averaging 2.2 goals per game in that stretch.
Defence
- →Cuiaba's defense is strong (0.5 conceded per game, 60% clean sheet rate), but attack is among the league's worst.
- →CRB's away games are high-scoring (8 scored, 8 conceded in 5 away), but they keep few clean sheets (10% season).
Injuries & Team News
- →No injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Cuiaba have scored just 4 goals in 10 league games and failed to win at home (0W 4D 1L).
🚩 Cuiaba vs CRB Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Cuiaba and 4.2 for CRB, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Cuiaba and CRB Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cuiaba vs CRB Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cuiabalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CRBlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Cuiaba are struggling for wins, drawing 4 of their last 5 and scoring only once in that span, with a recent loss to Nautico. Their defense remains solid, but their attack is blunt. CRB, in contrast, are on a hot streak, winning 4 of their last 5 and scoring 11 goals, including an impressive 4-2 win over Ponte Preta. Their momentum is clearly upward, but defensive vulnerabilities remain.
Cuiaba vs CRB — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +63.64% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
What History Says: Cuiaba vs CRB
Historically, Cuiaba have had the upper hand at home against CRB, winning most recent encounters and keeping things tight defensively. Draws are also common, with 3 in the last 10 meetings. The trend is for low-scoring games, with only one of the last five H2H matches seeing both teams score.
Cuiaba vs CRB Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Cuiaba wins
2
Draws
2
CRB wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cuiaba vs CRB
The model identifies the draw as the main value play, with a probability significantly higher than the bookmaker's implied odds. Other markets, especially BTTS 'no', are priced too short to offer value given the model's probabilities. The low goal expectation and high draw rate make the draw a standout in terms of expected value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cuiaba vs CRB
- ⚠️Cuiaba's extreme draw rate and low scoring make outcomes volatile to a single goal.
- ⚠️CRB's recent attacking surge could break Cuiaba's defensive pattern, but their away defense is suspect.
- ⚠️If either team scores early, match dynamics could change significantly.
- ⚠️Low confidence in goal markets due to Cuiaba's unpredictability in attack.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cuiaba vs CRB: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.