Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
Erzgebirge Aue
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
MSV Duisburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or MSV Duisburg
@ 1.5(+15% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or MSV Duisburg@ 1.5
Duisburg are in strong form and have a significant quality gap over Aue, who are winless in their last 5 and have poor defensive numbers. Duisburg have also been strong away from home compared to Aue's home struggles.
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Match Result: MSV Duisburg Win@ 2.3
Duisburg's superior league position, attacking output, and recent away form make them likely winners. Aue's defense has been leaky, conceding 2.2 goals/game in last 5.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.9
Both teams have high BTTS rates in recent matches (Aue 4/5, Duisburg 3/5), and both average well over a goal scored and conceded per game.
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The Case For This Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Prediction
MSV Duisburg travel to Erzgebirge Aue as clear favorites, based on their strong overall and recent form, superior attacking output, and Aue's defensive frailties. Aue have drawn three straight but have not won in five, and their season-long home record is poor. Duisburg, chasing a top 3 finish, have shown resilience on the road and are expected to control the match. However, Aue's recent matches have seen plenty of goals, and both teams are likely to contribute to the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Duisburg have won 18 of 35 and are 4th; Aue are 19th with just 5 wins.
- →Head-to-head: Duisburg unbeaten in last 4, but 3 draws.
Defence
- →Aue's last 5: DDDLL, conceding 2.2 goals/game.
- →Duisburg's last 5: LWWWL, scoring 1.8/game, conceding 1.2/game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Aue home: 4W 7D 7L (25:32); Duisburg away: 5W 5D 8L (26:30).
- →Both teams have over 65% of matches over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.7 corners for Erzgebirge Aue and 5 for MSV Duisburg, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Erzgebirge Aue and MSV Duisburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Erzgebirge Auelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
MSV Duisburglast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.71% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.71% of games this season
What History Says: Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg
Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Erzgebirge Aue wins
5
Draws
4
MSV Duisburg wins
Things to Watch: Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available—edges are illustrative, not actionable.
- ⚠️Aue's recent draws suggest some resilience; home underdogs can be unpredictable late in season.
- ⚠️Both teams' high over 2.5 and BTTS rates add volatility to goal markets.
- ⚠️Lineups not available; late team news could impact projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.