Estoril vs Maritimo Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estoril
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Maritimo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Maritimo Win
Estoril vs Maritimo: Match Preview
Estoril arrive at their lowest ebb, bottom of the league and winless after ten matches, with five straight defeats and just two points to show for their efforts. Their most recent performance—a 0-4 defeat at Porto—underscored deep defensive issues and a lack of belief, while even at home, they've managed only three goals in five games. Maritimo, though not in sparkling form themselves, have at least found ways to pick up points, with two wins and two draws from nine, and have shown a knack for scoring late goals to salvage results.
The tactical battle will hinge on which defence cracks first. Estoril's last five matches have seen them ship 2.4 goals per game, with only 0.6 scored, despite averaging nearly 15 shots and 4.6 on target. Maritimo's defence is also leaky, conceding 2.2 per match recently and 12 in five away games this season, but their attack has been more efficient, especially after the break—four of their last five goals have come in the second half. Both sides are disciplined but not immune to cards, and neither has a notable set-piece edge, with corners and fouls numbers middling.
Given Estoril's downward spiral and Maritimo's relative resilience, the model expects the away side to take advantage of Estoril's lack of confidence, particularly in the latter stages. Goals are likely at both ends, but Maritimo's ability to stay in games and strike late tips the balance in their favour, with a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome.
How Estoril and Maritimo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Estoril vs Maritimo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Estorillast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Maritimolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Estoril are in freefall, having lost five consecutive matches and conceded 12 goals in that spell, with no sign of momentum or improvement. Maritimo, while inconsistent, have managed to score in four of their last five and at least picked up points earlier in the campaign, giving them a slight edge in confidence and form.
Estoril vs Maritimo — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 77.78% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Estoril vs Maritimo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Estoril vs Maritimo that most previews miss.
- 1Estoril have lost five consecutive matches, conceding at least two goals in four of those games.
- 2Maritimo have scored four of their last five league goals in the second half, highlighting late-game threat.
- 3Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five league matches.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Estoril vs Maritimo?
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The Case For This Estoril vs Maritimo Prediction
Estoril limp into this fixture rooted to the bottom of the table, winless after ten matches and reeling from five consecutive defeats. Their last outing, a 0-4 hammering at Porto, typifies a side bereft of confidence and defensive stability, having conceded 12 goals in their last five. Maritimo, though hardly flying, have at least managed two wins and two draws from nine, and their recent away form—while patchy—includes a cup win and a late draw at Gil Vicente. Both sides are desperate for points, but Estoril's spiral is the league's most severe. Statistically, this is a clash of two vulnerable defences. Estoril's last five have yielded 2.4 goals conceded per game, with just 0.6 scored, while Maritimo have allowed 2.2 per match and scored one per game in the same period. Estoril's attack is at least generating chances, averaging nearly 15 shots and 4.6 on target per game recently, but their conversion rate is poor. Maritimo, meanwhile, have been more clinical late in games, notching four of their last five goals after half-time. Set-piece threat is muted on both sides, with corners and fouls numbers modest, but discipline could play a part—Estoril have averaged over two yellows per game in their last five. Momentum is the decisive factor: Estoril's confidence appears shattered, with heads dropping after conceding, while Maritimo have at least shown resilience to grind out results and score late. Expect Maritimo to exploit Estoril's second-half frailty, with the hosts' inability to hold leads or keep clean sheets likely to prove costly again. The model sees Maritimo as the more likely winners, in a match where defensive lapses should ensure goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Estoril are on a five-match losing streak, conceding 12 goals in that run.
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league games.
Match Context
- →Maritimo have scored in four of their last five league matches, including three second-half goals.
Where the Model Sees Value: Estoril vs Maritimo(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Maritimo Win
Maritimo have averaged a goal per game in their last five and face an Estoril side on a five-match losing streak, conceding 2.4 per match in that run. The away side's momentum, combined with Estoril's winless campaign and defensive frailty, tilts the probabilities toward Maritimo despite their own inconsistencies.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have defensive issues: Estoril have shipped 12 in their last five, Maritimo 11, and Maritimo's season over 2.5 goals rate stands at 77.8%. Recent form points to another open contest.
Read more ↓
More Primeira Liga Predictions
🚩 Estoril vs Maritimo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Estoril and 4.6 for Maritimo, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
What History Says: Estoril vs Maritimo
Estoril have won four of the last ten meetings with Maritimo and lost just twice, including back-to-back home victories (3-1 and 2-1) in recent seasons. Both teams have tended to score in this fixture, with five of the last seven H2Hs seeing goals at both ends.
Estoril vs Maritimo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Estoril wins
4
Draws
2
Maritimo wins
Things to Watch: Estoril vs Maritimo
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Both teams' form is poor, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Recent H2H data is limited for current squads; squad changes may affect patterns.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Estoril 1–2 MaritimoThe model calls a 2-1 win for Maritimo, driven primarily by Estoril's five-match losing streak and defensive collapse—12 goals conceded in that stretch. The biggest risk to this prediction is Maritimo's own inconsistency and their tendency to concede, which could allow Estoril a route back if they find any attacking rhythm at home.
Estoril vs Maritimo: Common Questions
Who will win Estoril vs Maritimo?
Maritimo are rated 48% likely to win, with Estoril given just a 23% chance and the draw at 29%. Estoril's five-match losing streak and defensive issues tilt the probabilities toward the away side.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Maritimo?
There's a 55% chance both teams find the net, as neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five league games and both defences are conceding over two goals per match recently.
Can Estoril end their losing streak against Maritimo?
Estoril have a 23% probability of winning, but their recent form—five straight defeats and just three home goals all season—suggests their struggles are likely to continue unless their conversion rate improves dramatically.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Estoril vs Maritimo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.