Everton vs Burnley Prediction
Premier League · England
Everton
Burnley
📍 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
🗓️ Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026 at 19:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 58.0%
Draw: 28.0%
Away: 14.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
77.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — home@ 1.25
EV: -3.0%
Everton are much stronger at home, Burnley are struggling away (2W 3D 9L, 33 conceded), and Everton's defense is solid. However, odds are short, so value is limited.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.1
EV: 27.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 is 31%, higher than the implied probability of 24%. Burnley concede heavily, so if Everton break through early, over could land.
btts — no@ 1.15
EV: -1.0%
Burnley have failed to score in 2 of last 5, Everton have kept Burnley scoreless in 2 of last 3 H2H. But odds are very short, so value is poor.
Match Analysis
Everton host Burnley in a match where the home side are clear favourites. Everton's recent form is mixed but includes a solid defensive record and a strong home advantage. Burnley, sitting 19th, have struggled away from home, conceding over two goals per game on their travels and scoring infrequently. The H2H record also favours Everton, especially at home. Expect a low-scoring game with Everton likely to control proceedings, but Burnley may offer some resistance in the first half before Everton's quality shows.
Key Factors
- →Everton's home defensive record is strong (1.15 conceded per game, 33% clean sheets).
- →Burnley have the league's second-worst away defense (33 conceded in 14).
- →Burnley average just 0.8 shots on target per game over last 5.
- →Everton's last 5: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game, but only 1 failed to score.
- →Everton have not kept a clean sheet in last 5, but Burnley have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →H2H: Everton unbeaten in last 3 vs Burnley (2W, 1D, 0 conceded).
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Everton's recent form is inconsistent (LLWDD), so risk of underperformance.
- ⚠️Burnley have managed some surprise results (draw at Chelsea, win at Palace).
- ⚠️Low model confidence in goal markets due to both teams' erratic scoring patterns.
- ⚠️Some missing advanced stats for Burnley last 5 matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.