Everton vs Chelsea Prediction
Premier League · England
Everton
Chelsea
📍 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Mar 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 19.0%
Draw: 26.0%
Away: 55.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.7
EV: 14.0%
Chelsea's away games have a 63% over 2.5 rate, and Everton's defence has been inconsistent. The odds on over 2.5 are generous relative to the model probability.
btts — yes@ 3.75
EV: 14.3%
Both teams have shown a tendency for BTTS in recent matches (Everton 2/5, Chelsea 4/5), and Chelsea's defence has not kept a clean sheet in their last 5.
1x2 — away@ 1.48
Chelsea have a strong away record and a significant attacking edge, but the odds are short and value is marginal.
Match Analysis
Chelsea travel to Everton as favourites, with a superior away record and much higher attacking output over the season. Everton have struggled for consistency, especially at home, and have failed to score in two of their last five. Chelsea's recent results are mixed, but they remain a threat in attack, averaging 2 goals per away game. The H2H history also favours Chelsea, who have won five of the last ten meetings. Expect Chelsea to control possession and create more chances, but Everton's resilience at home could keep the game competitive.
Key Factors
- →Chelsea's away attack: 2.0 goals/game last 5, 2.0 goals/game season away
- →Everton home record: 5W 4D 6L, negative goal difference
- →Chelsea away record: 7W 4D 4L, +12 goal difference
- →Everton's recent form: LWWLL, scoring just 1.2 goals/game last 5
- →Chelsea's recent form: LLWLD, but 4/5 BTTS and high over 2.5 rate season
- →H2H: Chelsea 5 wins in last 10, Everton 2, 3 draws, mostly low-scoring
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is inconsistent; Chelsea lost last 2 games.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, xG) missing for both teams.
- ⚠️Everton's home performance is unpredictable, and their failed-to-score rate is moderate.
- ⚠️No injury data, but lineups not confirmed at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Chelsea's heavy Champions League defeat may affect morale or rotation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.