Famalicao vs Alverca Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Famalicao
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Alverca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 3.75(+10% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Famalicao vs Alverca?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Famalicao vs Alverca(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Famalicao Win@ 1.25
Famalicao have a strong home record (8W, 4D, 4L), are unbeaten in their last 5 (DDWDD), and face an Alverca side with poor away form (3W, 4D, 9L, 28 conceded). However, the odds are short, limiting value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.75
Model probability (0.37) is higher than implied odds (0.27), and Alverca's matches see goals (52% over 2.5 for the season). Famalicao's attack at home is solid, so there's value in a small stake.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.8
Famalicao have drawn 4 of their last 5 and 4 of 16 at home; Alverca have 4 away draws. Slight model edge and recent form support a small speculative play.
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The Case For This Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction
Famalicao, solid at home and defensively reliable, host an Alverca side that struggles away and concedes heavily on the road. While Famalicao are not prolific scorers, they are consistent and difficult to break down, especially at home. Alverca's form is mixed, but their poor away record and defensive frailty suggest they will find it hard to breach Famalicao's defense.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Famalicao's home record: 8W, 4D, 4L, only 12 conceded in 16 home matches
- →Alverca's away record: 3W, 4D, 9L, 28 conceded in 16 away matches
- →Famalicao's recent form: unbeaten in last 5 (DDWDD), only 1 goal conceded per game
- →Alverca's recent form: DLWLW, no clean sheets in last 5
- →Famalicao's season clean sheet rate: 48%, Alverca's: 18%
Match Context
- →Low BTTS probability and under 2.5 trend for Famalicao home matches
🚩 Famalicao vs Alverca Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Famalicao and 5.4 for Alverca, for an expected total of 12.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (77%). Over 8.5: 86% · Over 10.5: 67%.
How Famalicao and Alverca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Famalicao vs Alverca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Famalicaolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Alvercalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Famalicao are unbeaten in their last five, drawing four and winning once, showing defensive solidity but some lack of cutting edge in attack. Alverca have alternated between wins and losses in their last five, with their only draw coming most recently, but have failed to keep a clean sheet and continue to struggle away from home.
Famalicao vs Alverca — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +48.48% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Famalicao vs Alverca
Head-to-head history is sparse, with just two meetings: both ended in away wins, including a 1-0 win for Alverca earlier this season. This pattern is interesting but not enough to outweigh the broader season trends favoring Famalicao at home.
Famalicao vs Alverca Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Famalicao wins
0
Draws
1
Alverca wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Famalicao vs Alverca
The clearest value edge is on over 2.5 goals, where the model probability is notably higher than the implied odds. The draw also offers a slight edge due to Famalicao's tendency to draw at home and recent run of stalemates. There is negative value on BTTS: No, as the odds are too short given the model's probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Famalicao vs Alverca
- ⚠️Limited head-to-head data (only 2 matches, both away wins)
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent Alverca games (shots, possession, etc.)
- ⚠️Final round of the season: possible rotation or reduced motivation
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds heavily favor Famalicao, reducing value on home win
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Famalicao vs Alverca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.