Fiorentina vs Genoa Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 0
Genoa
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+19% edge)
Match Result
5.8/10Stalemate in Florence: Fiorentina and Genoa Share the Spoils in Goalless Draw
Fiorentina and Genoa played out a tense 0-0 draw at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, with both sides struggling to find the cutting edge in a match that was high on effort but short on clear-cut chances. Fiorentina dominated possession with 58% and registered 13 shots, but managed just one on target, underlining their attacking frustrations. Genoa, meanwhile, were more efficient in their approach, recording three shots on target from nine attempts, but also failed to breach David De Gea’s goal. The match was characterized by disciplined defending and a lack of clinical finishing from both teams. Despite tactical tweaks and substitutions, neither side could break the deadlock, leaving both sets of supporters to rue missed opportunities as the Serie A campaign draws to a close.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
0 - 0
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Save
David De Gea makes a sharp stop to deny Genoa’s best chance of the first half.
41' — Save
Justin Bijlow reacts well to Fiorentina’s only shot on target, keeping the scores level.
68' — Substitution
Both sides make tactical substitutions in search of a breakthrough, but to no avail.
82' — Save
De Gea again called into action, preserving Fiorentina’s clean sheet.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina controlled much of the ball, enjoying 58% possession and dictating the tempo from midfield. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed for width and fluidity, but the final product was sorely lacking, with just one of their 13 shots testing Genoa’s goalkeeper. The midfield trio of Mandragora, Fagioli, and Ndour kept the ball moving, but the forwards struggled to create genuine scoring opportunities. Defensively, Fiorentina were solid, rarely allowing Genoa’s front line to get in behind. However, the lack of attacking penetration ultimately cost them the chance to claim all three points at home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Genoa
Genoa set up in a compact 3-4-2-1 formation, ceding possession but looking to hit Fiorentina on the counter. They managed three shots on target from nine attempts, the best of which were well saved by De Gea. The midfield pairing of Frendrup and Amorim provided energy and bite, while the back three marshalled Fiorentina’s forwards effectively. Despite their defensive solidity and moments of promise going forward, Genoa lacked the quality in the final third to convert half-chances into goals, settling for a hard-earned point on the road.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fiorentina’s 4-3-3 formation was designed for control and width, with Mandragora orchestrating from deep and fullbacks pushing up. However, Genoa’s disciplined 3-4-2-1 shape clogged the central areas, forcing Fiorentina to play around rather than through. Genoa’s wingbacks dropped deep to form a back five when out of possession, making it difficult for Fiorentina’s forwards to find space. Both teams looked to set pieces and quick transitions as potential avenues for a breakthrough, but defensive discipline and a lack of final-third quality prevailed. Substitutions in the second half aimed to inject fresh legs and ideas, but neither side could alter the tactical stalemate.
Turning Point
Justin Bijlow’s save late in the first half from Fiorentina’s only shot on target ensured Genoa stayed level, setting the tone for a goalless draw.
Man of the Match
David De Gea
Produced three important saves to keep Fiorentina’s clean sheet intact and deny Genoa a winner.
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Expected goals · model says 0.65
Expected goals · model says 0.35
Over 2.5 Goals
8%
BTTS: Yes
14%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Fiorentina vs Genoa?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Fiorentina vs Genoa(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.5
Both teams have struggled to score recently and have high draw rates (Fiorentina: 14 draws, Genoa: 11 draws this season). The last two H2H meetings were draws, and both sides have low attacking output and strong recent defensive records.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.14
Both teams have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and the last two Fiorentina home games ended 0-0. Model probability for under 2.5 is 89%.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction
This is a clash between two lower-mid-table sides with little left to play for, and both have shown a marked drop in attacking output. Fiorentina and Genoa have each failed to score in three of their last five matches, and both have managed two clean sheets in that span. The H2H history is dominated by draws, and the stats point strongly toward a low-scoring, cagey affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- →Head-to-head: 5 draws in last 10, including the last two meetings.
Attack
- →Both sides average under 1 goal scored per game over last 5.
Match Context
- →Fiorentina have drawn 8 of 18 home games; Genoa have drawn 7 of 18 away.
- →Last two Fiorentina home games ended 0-0.
🚩 Fiorentina vs Genoa Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Fiorentina and 4.5 for Genoa, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Fiorentina and Genoa Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fiorentina vs Genoa Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fiorentinalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Genoalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Fiorentina come into this match off a run of four draws and a heavy defeat, with their last two home games ending 0-0. Genoa have also struggled for goals, failing to score in three of their last five, but have managed two wins and two clean sheets in that span. Both teams' recent form points to defensive solidity but a lack of attacking threat.
Fiorentina vs Genoa — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Fiorentina vs Genoa
The head-to-head history is dominated by Fiorentina, who are unbeaten in the last 10 meetings, but draws are frequent. The last two encounters (2-2 and 0-0) underline the even nature of this fixture, and three of the last five have finished under 2.5 goals.
Fiorentina vs Genoa Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Fiorentina wins
5
Draws
0
Genoa wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fiorentina vs Genoa
The biggest value edge is on the draw, with the model assigning a 48% probability versus bookmaker odds implying only 29%. Under 2.5 goals also has a small positive edge, with the model at 89% versus odds-implied 88%. BTTS 'no' is not a value play despite being likely, as the odds are too short.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fiorentina vs Genoa
- ⚠️Both teams have little to play for, which can sometimes lead to unpredictable results.
- ⚠️Injuries are present for both sides, but most absentees are not recent regular starters.
- ⚠️Low attacking output increases the variance for correct score and BTTS markets.
- ⚠️Some away match stats for Genoa's last 5 are missing, slightly reducing confidence in their attacking/defensive averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fiorentina vs Genoa: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.