Fiorentina vs Pisa Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina
Full Time
Pisa
📍 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
🗓️ Monday, 23 Feb 2026 at 17:30
Match Result
6.8/10Fiorentina Edge Pisa in Tight Derby Thanks to Early Kean Strike
Fiorentina secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Pisa at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, with Moise Kean’s early goal proving decisive in a match defined by physical battles and tactical discipline. The hosts dominated possession and created more chances, but Pisa’s resolute defending and combative midfield ensured the contest remained tense until the final whistle. The Viola started brightly, taking the lead in the 13th minute through Kean, and maintained control for much of the game with 56% possession and 15 total shots. Pisa struggled to threaten David De Gea’s goal, managing just one shot on target, but their defensive organization and physical approach (committing 19 fouls and collecting three yellow cards) kept them within touching distance throughout. Ultimately, Fiorentina’s quality in midfield and attacking intent saw them through, despite some nervy moments late on.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Moise Kean finishes clinically to give Fiorentina an early lead.
22' — Yellow Card
Fiorentina pick up their first booking as they look to disrupt Pisa’s counters.
34' — Yellow Card
Pisa’s aggressive approach sees them pick up a yellow card for a late challenge.
67' — Yellow Card
Another booking for Pisa as tempers flare in midfield.
78' — Yellow Card
Fiorentina receive their third yellow, protecting their slim advantage.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina delivered a professional performance, asserting themselves early and managing the tempo with a 4-3-3 formation that allowed them to control midfield and create the better chances. Their attacking trio, led by Moise Kean, showed intent, and the midfield’s balance ensured Pisa rarely found a foothold. Defensively, the back four and De Gea were largely untroubled, with only one shot on target to contend with. However, Fiorentina’s inability to convert further chances left the door open, and their three yellow cards reflect a willingness to break up play and protect their lead. Ultimately, their composure and control saw them over the line for a deserved three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Pisa
Pisa set up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, prioritizing defensive solidity and looking to frustrate Fiorentina. While they struggled to create clear-cut chances—managing just seven shots and only one on target—their physical approach disrupted the hosts’ rhythm and kept the match competitive. The back three, marshaled by Antonio Caracciolo, dealt well with sustained pressure, and the midfield worked tirelessly to close down space. Despite their effort and discipline, Pisa’s lack of attacking threat was telling, and their 19 fouls and three bookings reflected a reactive rather than proactive performance. They remained in the contest until the end but ultimately failed to muster the quality needed to snatch a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fiorentina’s 4-3-3 provided width and balance, with Fagioli orchestrating play from midfield and the full-backs supporting attacks. The front three pressed high early, forcing Pisa into mistakes and capitalizing with Kean’s opener. As the match wore on, Fiorentina focused on game management, using tactical fouls and maintaining possession to limit Pisa’s opportunities. Pisa’s 3-4-2-1 was compact and physical, with wing-backs dropping deep to form a back five when out of possession. Their midfield’s aggressive pressing disrupted Fiorentina’s rhythm but came at the cost of frequent fouls and bookings. Despite tactical discipline, Pisa’s lack of width and attacking numbers meant they rarely troubled the hosts.
Turning Point
Moise Kean’s 13th-minute goal set the tone and forced Pisa to chase the game, allowing Fiorentina to dictate proceedings.
Man of the Match
Moise Kean
His early goal proved decisive and he led the line with energy and quality throughout.
Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 49.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 15.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
52.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 4.33
EV: 107.0%
Both teams have shown a high BTTS rate in recent matches (Fiorentina 5/5, Pisa 4/5), and both have leaky defences. The odds offered are much higher than model probability, creating strong value.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.55
EV: 46.0%
Fiorentina's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 64% this season, and Pisa's defence is weak. The price is generous relative to model probability.
1x2 — draw@ 3.75
EV: 35.0%
Both teams have a high draw rate (Fiorentina 9/25, Pisa 12/25), and Pisa have drawn 8/12 away. The draw is more likely than odds suggest.
Match Analysis
This is a relegation six-pointer between Fiorentina and Pisa, both struggling near the bottom of Serie A. Fiorentina have a slight edge at home, but both teams have been inconsistent and prone to defensive lapses. Recent form for both is poor, but Fiorentina's attack has shown more promise, while Pisa continue to draw many away games. Expect a tense, low-quality match with a high chance of both teams scoring and a significant probability of a draw.
Key Factors
- →Fiorentina have scored in all of their last 5 matches and have a 64% over 2.5 goal rate this season.
- →Pisa are winless away but have drawn 8 of 12 away matches.
- →Both teams have poor defensive records (Fiorentina 1.56 conceded per game, Pisa 1.68).
- →BTTS has landed in 5/5 Fiorentina and 4/5 Pisa recent matches.
- →Neither side has significant injuries.
- →First H2H this season ended 0-0, but both teams have become more open since.
- →Fiorentina's home record is weak (2-4-6), but Pisa's away record is even worse (0-8-4).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited recent match stat data for Pisa (missing shots, possession for last 5).
- ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable and have high draw rates, increasing variance.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest low scoring, but recent BTTS/over trends are strong.
- ⚠️One prior H2H only, which was a 0-0 draw.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.