Pisa vs Genoa Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Pisa
Genoa
📍 Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa
🗓️ Sunday, 19 Apr 2026 at 16:00
Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 8.0%
Draw: 28.0%
Away: 64.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
87.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — away@ 1.55
EV: -0.5%
Genoa are in much better form (WLLWW), Pisa are bottom with just 2 wins all season and 1 goal scored in their last 5, and Genoa have a solid away record against weak teams. However, the odds closely match the model probability, so value is marginal.
btts — no@ 1.13
EV: -1.5%
Pisa have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, and Genoa's defense is solid against bottom teams. Model gives 87% probability for BTTS 'no', but the odds are short and value is limited.
Match Analysis
Genoa travel to Pisa as strong favorites, with Pisa rooted to the bottom of the table and in dreadful form (LLLWL, just 2 wins in 32). Pisa have managed only 7 home goals all season and have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, conceding heavily. Genoa, while inconsistent, are coming off two wins in their last three and have shown the ability to keep things tight against weaker opposition. Expect Genoa to control the game, likely keeping a clean sheet, and to win by a margin of 1-2 goals. Goals are likely to be at a premium, with under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no' both strong trends.
Key Factors
- →Pisa are last in Serie A with only 2 wins, 7 home goals, and a -35 goal difference.
- →Pisa's last 5: 4 losses, 1 win, 0.6 goals scored per game, 2.8 conceded.
- →Genoa's last 5: 3 wins, 2 losses, 1.2 goals scored and conceded per game.
- →Genoa's away record is average, but Pisa's home record is among the league's worst.
- →H2H: Last 3 meetings—2 draws, 1 Genoa win, all low-scoring.
- →Pisa have failed to score in 4 of last 5; Genoa have 1 clean sheet in last 5.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
- →Bookmaker odds and model probabilities are closely aligned, so value is limited.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Pisa are desperate for points and could play defensively, risking a low-scoring draw.
- ⚠️Genoa are inconsistent and have lost to weaker sides this season.
- ⚠️Low value in available odds; recommended bets are low-stake.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession) are missing for certain recent games, adding minor uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.