AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma
Atalanta
📍 Stadio Olimpico, Rome
🗓️ Saturday, 18 Apr 2026 at 18:45
Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 34.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 28.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
57.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 3.25
EV: 24.0%
Both teams have similar defensive records, low over 2.5% for the season, and recent form is mixed. H2H is draw-prone, and model probability for draw (0.38) exceeds implied (0.31).
double_chance — 1X
Roma's strong home record (11W/2D/3L), Atalanta's moderate away form, and the importance of the fixture for both sides suggest Roma are unlikely to lose.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.18
EV: -4.0%
Both teams have under 40% over 2.5 for the season, recent matches trend under, and H2H is consistently low scoring.
Match Analysis
This is a crucial clash in the Serie A European race, with AS Roma and Atalanta separated by just four points. Roma are strong at home, but Atalanta have a good away record and a dominant recent H2H trend. Both teams are defensively solid, rarely concede more than once, and play low-scoring matches. Expect a tactical, cagey contest with few clear chances and a high probability of a draw or a narrow win either way.
Key Factors
- →Roma home record: 11W/2D/3L, only 9 conceded at home.
- →Atalanta away: 5W/6D/4L, 19 scored, 14 conceded.
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per match.
- →Season over 2.5%: both at 37.5%.
- →Last 10 H2H: 6 Atalanta wins, 2 draws, 2 Roma wins, but most games are low scoring.
- →Recent form: Roma WLWLD, Atalanta LWWLD.
- →Few injuries of note; Bove missing for Roma but not a key starter.
- →Set piece and corner stats are moderate; no clear edge.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing data for shots, shots on target, and lineups in recent matches.
- ⚠️Atalanta's lineup rotation (Champions League) could affect performance.
- ⚠️Low confidence on goal markets due to possible tactical shifts.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on unders and BTTS 'no' are very short; little value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.