AS Roma vs Atalanta Predictions
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Atalanta
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+7% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Roma and Atalanta Share the Spoils in Stadio Olimpico Stalemate
AS Roma and Atalanta played out a tense 1-1 draw at the Stadio Olimpico, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive breakthrough. Atalanta struck first through Nikola Krstović in the 12th minute, capitalizing on an early spell of pressure. Roma responded just before halftime, with Stephan El Shaarawy restoring parity and setting up a second half full of promise. Despite Roma dominating possession (53%) and peppering the Atalanta goal with 19 shots—nine of them on target—Marco Carnesecchi stood firm between the posts for the visitors. Atalanta, while less prolific in attack, remained dangerous on the counter and managed two shots on target from eight attempts. Both teams had periods of ascendancy, but neither could convert late chances, leaving the points shared in a result that reflects both sides’ strengths and limitations.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
12' — Goal
Nikola Krstović puts Atalanta ahead with an early strike.
45' — Goal
Stephan El Shaarawy equalizes for Roma just before halftime.
53' — Yellow Card
Atalanta pick up their first yellow as the game grows more physical.
67' — Yellow Card
Second Atalanta player booked as Roma press for a winner.
74' — Yellow Card
Roma's only booking as tempers flare late on.
AS Roma
Roma showed attacking intent throughout, controlling possession and creating more chances than their visitors. Their 19 shots and 9 on target underscored their offensive ambition, and Stephan El Shaarawy's equalizer just before halftime was a deserved reward for their efforts. However, despite sustained pressure and seven corners, they struggled to break down Atalanta's disciplined back line in the second half. Defensively, Roma were largely solid but were caught cold by Atalanta's early goal. The midfield pairing of Neil El Aynaoui and Bryan Cristante worked hard to regain control after the setback, and the wing-backs Zeki Çelik and Devyne Rensch provided width. Ultimately, a lack of clinical finishing and some resolute goalkeeping from Carnesecchi denied them all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Atalanta
Atalanta started brightly, taking the lead through Nikola Krstović in the 12th minute and threatening on the break. Their compact 3-4-2-1 shape allowed them to soak up pressure and spring forward, but they found themselves on the back foot for much of the match as Roma pressed for a winner. Despite conceding more possession and chances, Atalanta's defense, marshaled by Berat Djimsiti and Sead Kolasinac, held firm under sustained pressure. Marco Carnesecchi was pivotal, making several crucial saves. Atalanta's 14 fouls and two yellow cards reflected their physical approach, but they remained organized and dangerous on set pieces and counters.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, leading to intriguing battles in the wide areas and midfield. Roma's wing-backs, Zeki Çelik and Devyne Rensch, pushed high to stretch Atalanta, while the midfield duo of Cristante and El Aynaoui sought to dictate tempo. Roma's pressing forced Atalanta to play long at times, but the visitors remained compact and looked to exploit spaces on the counter. Atalanta's disciplined back three absorbed pressure effectively, while their midfielders, particularly de Roon and Éderson, broke up play and launched quick transitions. Set pieces were a frequent source of threat for both sides, with corners (Roma 7, Atalanta 6) providing nervy moments. Substitutions in the second half aimed to inject fresh legs, but neither side altered their shape significantly, and the tactical stalemate persisted until the final whistle.
Turning Point
Stephan El Shaarawy's equalizer on the stroke of halftime shifted momentum back to Roma and set up a tense, open second half.
Man of the Match
Marco Carnesecchi
Produced a string of crucial saves to deny Roma a winner and preserve a valuable away point for Atalanta.
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AS Roma vs Atalanta(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.25
Both teams have similar defensive records, low over 2.5% for the season, and recent form is mixed. H2H is draw-prone, and model probability for draw (0.38) exceeds implied (0.31).
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Double Chance: AS Roma or Draw
Roma's strong home record (11W/2D/3L), Atalanta's moderate away form, and the importance of the fixture for both sides suggest Roma are unlikely to lose.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.18
Both teams have under 40% over 2.5 for the season, recent matches trend under, and H2H is consistently low scoring.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction
This is a crucial clash in the Serie A European race, with AS Roma and Atalanta separated by just four points. Roma are strong at home, but Atalanta have a good away record and a dominant recent H2H trend. Both teams are defensively solid, rarely concede more than once, and play low-scoring matches. Expect a tactical, cagey contest with few clear chances and a high probability of a draw or a narrow win either way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Roma WLWLD, Atalanta LWWLD.
Attack
- →Last 10 H2H: 6 Atalanta wins, 2 draws, 2 Roma wins, but most games are low scoring.
Defence
- →Roma home record: 11W/2D/3L, only 9 conceded at home.
- →Atalanta away: 5W/6D/4L, 19 scored, 14 conceded.
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per match.
Injuries & Team News
- →Few injuries of note; Bove missing for Roma but not a key starter.
Tactical Angle
- →Set piece and corner stats are moderate; no clear edge.
Match Context
- →Season over 2.5%: both at 37.5%.
🚩 AS Roma vs Atalanta Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for AS Roma and 5.4 for Atalanta, for an expected total of 10.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 76% · Over 10.5: 53%.
How AS Roma and Atalanta Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AS Roma vs Atalanta Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AS Romalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Atalantalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
AS Roma vs Atalanta — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: AS Roma vs Atalanta
AS Roma vs Atalanta Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
AS Roma wins
2
Draws
6
Atalanta wins
Things to Watch: AS Roma vs Atalanta
- ⚠️Some missing data for shots, shots on target, and lineups in recent matches.
- ⚠️Atalanta's lineup rotation (Champions League) could affect performance.
- ⚠️Low confidence on goal markets due to possible tactical shifts.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on unders and BTTS 'no' are very short; little value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Roma vs Atalanta: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.