AS Roma vs Atalanta Predictions
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Atalanta
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+9% edge)
AS Roma vs Atalanta: Match Preview
Roma opened their Serie A campaign with a convincing 4-0 win over Fiorentina, showing clinical finishing at home and building on a mixed pre-season. Atalanta also started with a win, edging Sassuolo 2-1, and followed up with a narrow European victory. Both sides sit on three points, with Roma ranked second and Atalanta sixth, and neither has dropped points in the league yet.
The underlying rates point to a contest shaped by defensive discipline. Roma’s last five matches average 2.2 scored and 2 conceded per game, but their only league clean sheet came against a blunt Fiorentina. Atalanta, by contrast, have kept four clean sheets in their last five across all competitions and have allowed only 0.2 goals per game in that stretch. Shot volumes favour Atalanta (7.4 per game last five) but Roma’s home output is skewed by a single explosive outing. H2H history is tight: six Atalanta wins in ten, but recent meetings at the Olimpico have been cagey.
The model expects a low-scoring, closely fought match, with neither side likely to create sustained pressure. Under 2.5 goals is favoured (57%), and the draw is the likeliest single result (33%). Both teams’ early-season defensive numbers and the H2H pattern of narrow margins support a 1-1 scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AS Roma vs Atalanta that most previews miss.
- 1Atalanta have conceded just one goal in their last five matches, keeping four clean sheets across all competitions.
- 2Only three of the last ten Roma–Atalanta meetings have produced more than two goals.
- 3Roma’s last five matches average just 1.6 shots on target per game, a low figure for a top-six side.
Who do you think wins: AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AS Roma vs Atalanta(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.44
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, above the 30.3% implied by the odds, with both sides showing strong defensive output in recent matches and four of the last ten H2H meetings ending level or decided by a single goal.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.8
Both teams have shown defensive solidity early in the season, with Atalanta conceding just once in their last five and Roma keeping a clean sheet in their only league match; the model projects a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction
Both Roma and Atalanta enter this fixture off opening-day wins and with defensive numbers that suggest a low-scoring contest is likely. The statistical rates point to a balanced matchup, with Roma’s home scoring outburst against Fiorentina offset by Atalanta’s consistency at the back. The draw emerges as the most probable outcome, with neither side likely to dominate the shot or xG counts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Roma’s last five matches average 2.2 goals scored but 2 conceded per game, yet only one clean sheet.
- →Atalanta have kept four clean sheets in their last five across all competitions, conceding just 0.2 goals per game in that span.
Match Context
- →Six of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by Atalanta, but the last two at the Olimpico ended level or with a single-goal margin.
🚩 AS Roma vs Atalanta Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for AS Roma and 4.7 for Atalanta, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 53% · Over 10.5: 28%.
How AS Roma and Atalanta Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AS Roma vs Atalanta Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AS Romalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Atalantalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Roma arrive off a 4-0 home win in Serie A but had mixed results in pre-season, with two defeats in their last five. Atalanta have won four of their last five in all competitions, conceding just once in that span and keeping four clean sheets, signalling a strong defensive trend.
AS Roma vs Atalanta — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: AS Roma vs Atalanta
Atalanta have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings, including three of the last four in Rome. However, the last encounter at the Olimpico finished 1-1, and five of the last seven have seen under 2.5 goals.
AS Roma vs Atalanta Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
AS Roma wins
2
Draws
6
Atalanta wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AS Roma vs Atalanta
The draw offers the clearest value at current odds, with the model’s 33% probability exceeding the 30.3% implied by 3.3. Marginal value also appears on 'under 2.5 goals' and 'BTTS no', both supported by defensive rates and H2H trends, but with smaller edges.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AS Roma vs Atalanta
- ⚠️Both teams have played only one Serie A match this season, so season-long rates are not yet robust.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies and European qualifiers may not reflect true league-level intensity or tactical setups.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lack of lineup data means possible late changes are not captured.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AS Roma 1–1 AtalantaA 1-1 draw is the most statistically supported outcome, driven by Atalanta’s recent defensive record (0.2 goals conceded per game in their last five) and a history of low-scoring, tight encounters between these sides. The main risk is Roma’s potential to repeat their clinical finishing from the Fiorentina match, but the broader rates suggest a return to the mean.
AS Roma vs Atalanta: Common Questions
Who will win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
The model gives Roma a 41% chance to win, Atalanta 26%, and the draw 33%. Both teams have started the season with wins, but recent defensive numbers and H2H trends point to a closely contested match.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Atalanta?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'no' slightly favoured at 52%. Atalanta have kept four clean sheets in their last five, but Roma's home attack showed potency against Fiorentina.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Roma vs Atalanta?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is given a 57% probability by the model. Five of the last seven H2H meetings have finished with two or fewer goals, and both sides have shown early-season defensive strength.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Roma vs Atalanta: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.