Fulham vs Burnley Prediction
Premier League · England
Fulham
Burnley
📍 Craven Cottage, London
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Mar 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 51.0%
Draw: 29.0%
Away: 20.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
58.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.65
EV: 16.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.43) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (0.27), with both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities and Fulham's home attack stronger than Burnley's away defence.
1x2 — draw@ 4
EV: 4.0%
Draw probability is slightly higher than the market implies, and both teams have drawn a notable number of matches recently. Burnley has shown some resilience against mid-table teams.
Match Analysis
Fulham host Burnley in a clash between a solid mid-table side and a relegation struggler. Fulham's home record is strong, but their recent form has been inconsistent, with scoring issues (3 games without a goal in last 5). Burnley, despite their lowly position, have shown some fight, drawing with Chelsea and Bournemouth recently, but their away defence remains leaky. Historically, Burnley have dominated this fixture, but Fulham's home advantage and Burnley's poor away record tilt the balance slightly in Fulham's favour. Expect a competitive game with Fulham likely edging it, but both teams could find the net.
Key Factors
- →Fulham's home record: 8 wins from 15, 24 goals scored.
- →Burnley's away defence: 35 conceded in 15 away matches.
- →Both teams average over 1 goal scored per game, but Fulham's recent attack has been inconsistent.
- →Burnley have only 4 wins all season and are 19th, but have managed draws against stronger sides.
- →H2H: Burnley have won 6 of the last 10, but Fulham won the most recent meeting.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →Fulham have only 1 clean sheet in last 5; Burnley have just 1 as well.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Fulham's recent scoring form is poor (3 games without a goal in last 5).
- ⚠️Burnley have shown some resilience, drawing with Chelsea and Bournemouth recently.
- ⚠️Low shots and shots on target averages for both teams in recent matches suggest low attacking output.
- ⚠️Some missing detailed stats for several recent matches (shots, possession, etc.), reducing confidence in micro-markets.
- ⚠️Market odds imply Fulham are much stronger, but model sees a closer contest.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.