Genoa vs AS Roma Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Genoa
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 2
AS Roma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 5.8(+8% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Genoa Edge Roma in Spirited 2-1 Triumph at the Luigi Ferraris
Genoa produced a gritty and disciplined display to claim a 2-1 victory over AS Roma at the Luigi Ferraris, overcoming a possession deficit with clinical finishing and resolute defending. Despite Roma commanding 65% of the ball and forcing six corners, it was Genoa who struck first early in the second half and ultimately found the winner after a brief Roma resurgence. The hosts opened the scoring in the 52nd minute, only for Roma to respond swiftly three minutes later. However, Genoa's determination paid off with a decisive goal in the 80th minute, sealing three valuable points. Roma's dominance in possession and territory was undermined by a lack of cutting edge, managing just one shot on target all match, while Genoa's directness and organization proved decisive.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
52' — Goal
Genoa break the deadlock with a well-worked move, taking a 1-0 lead.
55' — Goal
Roma respond almost immediately, leveling the score at 1-1.
80' — Goal
Genoa restore their lead, capitalizing on a rare chance to make it 2-1.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Roma pick up three yellow cards as frustration mounts; Genoa receive one.
Genoa
Genoa executed their game plan to perfection, soaking up sustained pressure from Roma and striking with precision on the break. Despite seeing just 35% of the ball, the hosts managed 11 shots with five on target, demonstrating a sharp attacking edge and making the most of their opportunities. Their back three, marshaled by Bijlow in goal, stood firm under pressure, while the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Roma's rhythm. The home side's ability to remain compact and spring forward in transition was pivotal, and their resilience after conceding the equalizer was commendable. Genoa's tactical discipline and opportunism ultimately earned them a deserved win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AS Roma
Roma dominated possession and territory, dictating the tempo with 65% of the ball and six corners, but struggled to translate their control into genuine attacking threat. Their lone shot on target across seven attempts highlights a lack of incisiveness in the final third, with Genoa's disciplined defensive block frustrating their creative players. Despite a quick response to Genoa's opener and a determined push for an equalizer late on, Roma's attacking play was too often blunted by Genoa's organization. Defensive lapses and a lack of composure in key moments ultimately cost them dearly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides deployed a 3-4-2-1 formation, but Genoa's approach was notably more conservative, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their wingbacks contributed to a compact shape, limiting Roma's ability to create overloads in wide areas. The midfield duo for Genoa worked tirelessly to break up play and launch counterattacks. Roma, meanwhile, sought to control proceedings through patient buildup and width provided by Tsimikas and Rensch. However, their possession-heavy style was met with a disciplined Genoa block, forcing Roma to attempt low-percentage shots and rely on set pieces. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, as Genoa remained resolute and Roma struggled to increase their attacking threat.
Turning Point
Genoa's 80th-minute goal, which came against the run of play, decisively swung the match in the hosts' favor after Roma had been pressing for a winner.
Man of the Match
Justin Bijlow
His assured goalkeeping and leadership at the back were crucial in repelling Roma's pressure and preserving Genoa's lead.
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Expected goals · model says 0.40
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
25%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-0 · 0-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Genoa vs AS Roma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Genoa vs AS Roma?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Genoa vs AS Roma(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 5.8
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.25) is higher than the implied probability from odds (0.17), offering positive value despite the low scoring tendency in both teams' recent matches. Small stake recommended due to underdog nature.
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BTTS: Yes@ 5.25
While both teams have low BTTS rates, the odds for 'yes' are slightly higher than model probability, giving a marginal value edge for a speculative small stake.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Genoa vs AS Roma Prediction
AS Roma travel to Genoa as strong favorites, with a clear gap in league position, season record, and defensive solidity. Roma's away form is solid, and they have a strong historical record against Genoa. Genoa's recent form is poor, especially in attack, and their home record is below average. Expect Roma to control the match, likely keeping a clean sheet, but with a slim chance of a higher-scoring game if Genoa chase the match.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: Roma have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, including a 3-1 win this season.
- →Recent form: Genoa have lost 3 of their last 5, Roma are unbeaten in 4 of 5.
Attack
- →Genoa average only 1.19 goals per game this season and have failed to score in 2 of their last 5.
Defence
- →Roma have conceded just 10 goals in 13 away games (0.77 per game).
- →Roma have a 44% clean sheet rate this season.
Match Context
- →Genoa's home record: 4W 4D 6L, with a negative goal difference.
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favor Roma, but value on high-variance goal markets.
🚩 Genoa vs AS Roma Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Genoa and 5.5 for AS Roma, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Genoa and AS Roma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Genoa vs AS Roma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Genoalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
AS Romalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Genoa vs AS Roma — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Genoa vs AS Roma
Genoa vs AS Roma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Genoa wins
2
Draws
6
AS Roma wins
Things to Watch: Genoa vs AS Roma
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing for both teams.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Roma's attack has been efficient but not prolific away from home.
- ⚠️Genoa occasionally produce surprise results at home.
- ⚠️Low confidence in high-goal or BTTS markets due to both teams' season trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Genoa vs AS Roma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.