Getafe vs Osasuna Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Getafe
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Osasuna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Getafe Edge Osasuna in Tight Contest to Close La Liga Season
Getafe clinched a narrow 1-0 victory over Osasuna at the Coliseum in a match defined by defensive discipline and a single moment of attacking quality. Both sides lined up with matching 5-3-2 formations, leading to a tactical stalemate for much of the contest. The breakthrough arrived just before the hour mark, when Getafe capitalized on a rare clear-cut chance to take the lead. Osasuna pressed for an equalizer, registering more shots (11 to Getafe's 6) and forcing David Soria into several key saves, but ultimately lacked the cutting edge in the final third. Despite holding a slight advantage in possession (54%), Getafe were content to absorb pressure and protect their lead, seeing out the final stages with composure.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
59' — Goal
Adrian Liso scores for Getafe, finishing off a rare attacking move to put the hosts ahead.
67' — Yellow Card
Osasuna's Valentin Rosier receives a booking as the visitors push forward in search of an equalizer.
73' — Yellow Card
Osasuna's Lucas Torró is shown a yellow for a tactical foul, halting a Getafe counter.
81' — Yellow Card
Getafe's Mauro Arambarri is booked for a late challenge as tensions rise late on.
Getafe
Getafe executed their game plan effectively, prioritizing defensive solidity and capitalizing on their opportunities. With just 6 shots and 3 on target, they were clinical when it mattered, scoring the decisive goal in the 59th minute. The back five, marshaled by David Soria in goal, stood firm against Osasuna's advances, while the midfield trio worked tirelessly to disrupt Osasuna's rhythm. Despite conceding more shots and committing 17 fouls, Getafe's discipline and organization ensured they kept a clean sheet, grinding out a hard-fought win to end their season on a positive note.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Osasuna
Osasuna showed plenty of endeavor, outshooting Getafe 11 to 6 and forcing the home side onto the back foot for stretches of the match. Their 5-3-2 formation allowed them to push wing-backs forward and create overloads, but they struggled to convert their possession into clear-cut chances. Despite 5 shots on target and 4 corners, they could not find a way past David Soria. The visitors' frustration was evident in their 20 fouls and 2 yellow cards, as they chased the game in the second half. Ultimately, a lack of composure in front of goal and some resolute Getafe defending left Osasuna empty-handed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both managers opted for a 5-3-2 setup, resulting in a congested midfield and limited space for attackers. Getafe focused on defensive solidity, keeping their wing-backs deep and relying on quick transitions to create chances. Their goal came from one such move, exploiting a rare lapse in Osasuna's back line. Osasuna, meanwhile, tried to use their wing-backs to stretch the play and create overloads on the flanks, but Getafe's disciplined shape stifled their attacks. As the match wore on, Osasuna committed more men forward and increased their pressing intensity, but Getafe's compact block and Soria's goalkeeping proved decisive.
Turning Point
Adrian Liso's 59th-minute goal shifted the momentum, allowing Getafe to retreat into a defensive shell and frustrate Osasuna's attempts to level the score.
Man of the Match
David Soria
His five saves and commanding presence ensured Getafe kept a vital clean sheet.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Getafe vs Osasuna?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Getafe vs Osasuna(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have struggled for consistency, with Getafe's attack limited but Osasuna's defense leaky away. Recent H2H also shows a tendency for close, low-scoring games.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Getafe's home matches average just under 2 goals per game and their season over 2.5% is low (27.8%). Osasuna's away attack is weak, supporting a low-scoring outcome.
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Double Chance: Getafe or Draw
Getafe are stronger at home and Osasuna have just 2 away wins all season, plus a 3-game losing streak. The home side is more likely to avoid defeat.
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More La Liga Predictions
The Case For This Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction
This fixture sees Getafe, solid at home but limited in attack, host an Osasuna side with a poor away record and recent form slump. Both teams have struggled for goals, and Getafe's defensive structure at the Coliseum often keeps games tight. Expect a cautious, physical encounter with few clear chances, where a draw or narrow home win seems most likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Getafe (WDLLW), Osasuna (LLLWL).
- →H2H: Getafe unbeaten in last 5 home H2H vs Osasuna (3W, 2D).
Attack
- →Getafe have the 7th best home record but average less than 1 goal scored per home game.
Defence
- →Osasuna have lost 12 of 18 away matches and conceded 25 away goals.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Only 1 of Getafe's last 5 saw BTTS; Osasuna have 4 BTTS in last 5.
🚩 Getafe vs Osasuna Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Getafe and 5.6 for Osasuna, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Getafe and Osasuna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Getafe vs Osasuna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Getafelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Osasunalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Getafe come into this match with a patchy but slightly improving form, having won their most recent game after two home defeats and a goalless draw. Osasuna, meanwhile, are on a three-match losing streak and have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5, struggling particularly on the road.
Getafe vs Osasuna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Getafe vs Osasuna
The recent head-to-head record favors Getafe at home, with Osasuna rarely taking points at the Coliseum. Matches are typically close, with draws and narrow wins common, and only one of the last five H2H exceeding two goals.
Getafe vs Osasuna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Getafe wins
2
Draws
2
Osasuna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Getafe vs Osasuna
With no bookmaker odds provided, value analysis is not possible for this fixture. If odds become available, the strongest model leans would be on under 2.5 goals and double chance Getafe or draw, given the statistical and form-based edges.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Getafe vs Osasuna
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided: value betting not possible.
- ⚠️Final round of season may introduce unpredictable motivation or squad rotation.
- ⚠️Correct score and cards/corners markets inherently volatile.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Getafe vs Osasuna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.