Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Groningen
Full Time
3 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
AZ Alkmaar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3.3(+23% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Groningen Stun AZ Alkmaar with Clinical 3-0 Home Triumph
Groningen produced a statement performance at the Euroborg, dispatching AZ Alkmaar 3-0 in a match where their efficiency in front of goal and defensive discipline shone through. Despite AZ edging possession with 53% and firing 16 shots (7 on target), it was the hosts who struck first, with Thom van Bergen opening the scoring in the 36th minute. Groningen then doubled their lead through Tygo Land after the break, before David van der Werff sealed the result with a third in the 76th minute. AZ Alkmaar struggled to convert their territorial advantage and attacking intent into goals, being repeatedly denied by Hidde Jurjus and a resolute Groningen backline. Groningen, meanwhile, made the most of their opportunities, punishing AZ on the break and from set pieces, and ultimately running out deserved winners in front of a jubilant home crowd.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
36' — Goal
Thom van Bergen opens the scoring for Groningen, finishing a swift attacking move.
58' — Goal
Tygo Land doubles Groningen's lead with a well-taken effort.
76' — Goal
David van der Werff puts the result beyond doubt with Groningen's third goal.
45' — Yellow Card
Groningen pick up a yellow card as their aggressive approach starts to show.
67' — Yellow Card
AZ Alkmaar receive a yellow card as frustration mounts.
Groningen
Groningen delivered a near-flawless display, blending defensive solidity with sharp attacking transitions. They were clinical with their chances, converting 3 of their 5 shots on target, and showed great organization in their 4-4-2 setup. The midfield quartet worked tirelessly to disrupt AZ's rhythm, while the front two capitalized on key moments to put the game beyond reach.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar controlled possession and created a high number of chances, but lacked the cutting edge required to break down Groningen's defense. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield, but the final ball and finishing let them down. Defensively, they were exposed on the counter and from set pieces, ultimately conceding three times despite having more of the ball.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Groningen's 4-4-2 provided a solid defensive base, with the midfield four working in tandem to shield the backline and spring quick counters. Their shape remained compact, frustrating AZ's attempts to play through the lines. When in possession, Groningen looked to exploit the channels and get their forwards in behind AZ's high line. AZ Alkmaar's 4-2-3-1 focused on controlling the midfield and stretching play with width, but their inability to penetrate the final third effectively left them vulnerable. As they pushed forward, gaps appeared in their defensive structure, which Groningen exploited ruthlessly. Set piece defending was also an issue for AZ, as Groningen capitalized on these situations.
Turning Point
Tygo Land's goal in the 58th minute gave Groningen a two-goal cushion and forced AZ to chase the game, leaving themselves exposed at the back.
Man of the Match
Thom van Bergen
Opened the scoring and was a constant threat, setting the tone for Groningen's attacking display.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.35
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Groningen 51.85%, AZ 66.67%), and recent matches show attacking intent. The odds offered are generous compared to the model probability.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 3.3
Groningen have BTTS in all last 5, and both teams' defenses are leaky. Model probability is much higher than odds-implied probability.
Match Result: AZ Alkmaar Win@ 1.85
AZ Alkmaar are stronger in form, H2H, and league position, but the odds are about fair value, so only a small stake is justified.
More Eredivisie Predictions
The Case For This Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
AZ Alkmaar travel to Groningen in a clash where both sides have shown attacking promise but defensive frailties. Groningen have struggled for consistency, with just one win in their last five, but remain dangerous at home. AZ come in with better form and a strong away record, while historical H2H shows AZ dominance. Expect a competitive match with goals likely at both ends, but AZ’s superior attack and recent momentum give them the edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including a 4-1 win earlier this season.
Attack
- →AZ’s attack averages 1.74 goals per game, Groningen 1.37.
Defence
- →Groningen have scored and conceded in all of their last 5 matches (BTTS 5/5).
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →AZ have a higher season over 2.5 rate (66.67%) than Groningen (51.85%).
- →AZ’s away record (6W, 1D, 7L) is better than Groningen’s home record (5W, 3D, 5L).
🚩 Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Groningen and 5.5 for AZ Alkmaar, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Groningen and AZ Alkmaar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Groningenlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
AZ Alkmaarlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Groningen wins
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar wins
Things to Watch: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for recent games reduce confidence in precise attacking/defensive projections.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds have both teams as joint favorites, suggesting market uncertainty.
- ⚠️Lineups are not yet announced, so late injuries or rotations could affect outcomes.
- ⚠️AZ are juggling European and domestic commitments, which could impact squad rotation/fatigue.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.