Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Jagiellonia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Pogon Szczecin
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4(+4% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4
Model probability for draw (0.29) exceeds odds-implied probability (0.25), with both teams showing inconsistency and a high draw rate in recent H2H and form.
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Correct Score: 2–1
Most likely correct score based on both teams' attacking and defensive averages, and recent H2H outcomes.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.13
Both teams have shown a trend towards lower-scoring games in recent form and H2H, with model probability for under 2.5 at 0.59.
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The Case For This Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction
Jagiellonia, currently 3rd and strong at home, host Pogon Szczecin, who struggle away and sit 15th. Jagiellonia's recent form is mixed but they remain tough to beat at home, while Pogon's away record is poor with just 3 wins in 15. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities, but Jagiellonia's attack is more consistent. H2H history is balanced but often close, with several draws. Expect a competitive match, likely decided by a narrow margin and possibly low on goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Both sides inconsistent, but Jagiellonia have higher overall quality
- →H2H: 3 draws in last 4 league meetings, generally close games
Attack
- →Pogon Szczecin's away record: 3W 3D 9L, only 13 goals scored in 15 away games
Defence
- →Jagiellonia's home attack (2.0 goals/game) vs Pogon's away defence (1.6 conceded/game)
Injuries & Team News
- →No key injuries reported for either side
Match Context
- →League motivation: Jagiellonia fighting for European spots, Pogon close to safety but not secure
🚩 Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Jagiellonia and 4.2 for Pogon Szczecin, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Pogon Szczecinlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Jagiellonia wins
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin
- ⚠️Some match stats missing for recent games (shots, possession, etc.)
- ⚠️Low confidence in corners/carding markets due to incomplete data
- ⚠️H2H history is volatile, with both teams capable of winning away
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.