Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Jagiellonia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Zaglebie Lubin
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Over 2.5
@ 7(+46% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under: Over 1.5@ 2.6
Model 0.82 vs implied 0.38 (edge +0.44). Jagiellonia’s last 5 all cleared 1.5 (3-2, 2-2, 2-0, 1-2, 3-0). Season Over 2.5 at 66.7% and venue scoring strong (33:24 in 16 home). Poisson total 3.1 and Zaglebie defense weakened by Grzybek’s absence.
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Over/Under: Over 2.5@ 7
Model 0.60 vs implied 0.14 (edge +0.46). Jagiellonia have 4/5 Over 2.5 recently and a 66.7% season Over 2.5 rate; Poisson total 3.1 supports goal potential.
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Over/Under: Over 3.5@ 17
Model 0.38 vs implied 0.06 (edge +0.32). Jagiellonia’s home matches average ~3.56 goals. Smaller stake due to Zaglebie’s recent lower-scoring trend.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction
Jagiellonia come in hot (DWWLW), scoring 11 in their last 5, and their home slate has been goal-heavy (33:24 in 16). Zaglebie have cooled (LWDLL) with 3 clean sheets against them but just 3 goals scored in that span, and they list regular defender M. Grzybek as out. The Poisson base (xG 1.75–1.35; total 3.1) already leans to goals, and venue/home-form factors nudge this toward a 2-1 home win. Historically, many H2H first halves have been tight, often 0-0 at the break, before opening up after halftime.
Key Factors at a Glance
Injuries & Team News
- →Injury: Zaglebie’s M. Grzybek (frequent starter) listed out (broken leg)
Match Context
- →Jagiellonia last 5: DWWLW, 2.2 GF/1.2 GA; season Over 2.5 at 66.7%
- →Jagiellonia home goals: 33 for, 24 against in 16 (3.56 gpg)
- →Zaglebie last 5: LWDLL, 0.6 GF avg, failed to score in 3/5
- →Poisson expected goals total: 3.1 (1.75 vs 1.35)
- →Market 1x2 odds favor Jagiellonia more than baseline model
🚩 Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Jagiellonia and 4.6 for Zaglebie Lubin, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Zaglebie Lubinlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonia have taken 10 points from their last 5 (DWWLW) with 11 goals scored and 2 clean sheets. Zaglebie are 1W-1D-3L in the same span, scoring 3 and failing to score in 3/5, though they kept 2 clean sheets.
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin
At Białystok, the last four league/home H2H results are mixed for Jagiellonia (3-0 W, 2-2 D, 2-1 W, 1-3 L). Many head-to-heads start slow (frequent 0-0 HT) before opening after the break.
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Jagiellonia wins
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin
Model vs odds shows large positive edges on goal overs: Over 1.5 (0.82 vs implied 0.38, +0.44 EV) and Over 2.5 (0.60 vs implied 0.14, +0.46 EV). These align with Jagiellonia’s high-scoring profile and the 3.1 Poisson total. 1x2 prices offer no edge on the home side given our adjusted 55% probability vs 1.62 (~62% implied).
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin
- ⚠️Over/Under prices appear highly unusual (Under heavily favored at very short odds) and may reflect bad or stale lines; staking should account for potential pricing anomalies.
- ⚠️Projected lineups are unknown; late team news could significantly impact goal expectation.
- ⚠️H2H signals are mixed and include low-scoring matches; variance near season end can be high.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.