Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Predictions
Premier League · Russia
Krylia Sovetov
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Spartak Moscow
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.5(+12% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.55
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.4
Model probability for draw (25%) is slightly above market implied (22.7%), and Krylia Sovetov have drawn 6 of 12 at home, while Spartak have 3 away draws. Value is marginal but present.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.5
Model gives 34% for over 2.5 goals vs 22% implied. Both teams have moderate over 2.5 rates (Krylia 46%, Spartak 58%), and recent H2H has had several high-scoring games.
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The Case For This Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction
Spartak Moscow travel to Krylia Sovetov as clear favorites, with the hosts struggling defensively (2.4 conceded per game last 5) and sitting 14th in the table. Spartak's attack has been consistent (1.8 goals per game last 5, 1.62 season avg) and their away form is solid compared to Krylia's home/season form. Krylia have shown some fight at home (only 2 losses in 12), but their recent form is poor (LDDLL) and they have not kept a clean sheet in the last 5. H2H is heavily in Spartak's favor, and the away side should control the match. Expect Spartak to score first and dictate the tempo, with Krylia relying on set pieces and occasional counters.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Spartak Moscow have won 7 of last 10 H2H meetings, including 4 of last 5.
Attack
- →Spartak average 1.8 goals scored and 16.2 shots per game in last 5.
- →Both teams have high BTTS rates recently, but Krylia's attack is less efficient.
Defence
- →Krylia Sovetov have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
- →Krylia's home record is resilient (4W 6D 2L), but they concede 1.25 goals per home game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Spartak still motivated for European places, Krylia fighting relegation.
🚩 Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7.4 corners for Krylia Sovetov and 4.4 for Spartak Moscow, for an expected total of 11.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 83% · Over 10.5: 63%.
How Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Krylia Sovetovlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Spartak Moscowlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
What History Says: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Krylia Sovetov wins
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Odds from 1xBet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
- ⚠️Krylia Sovetov's home resilience (only 2 home losses) could frustrate Spartak.
- ⚠️Spartak coming off a loss; possible rotation or tactical adjustment.
- ⚠️Some variance in goal markets due to Krylia's unpredictable defense.
- ⚠️No lineups available at time of analysis; late injury or rotation risk.
- ⚠️Model probabilities for draw and over 2.5 are only slightly above market, so value is not strong.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.