Larisa vs Atromitos Predictions
Super League 1 · Greece
Larisa
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Atromitos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 1.92(+6% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Larisa Edge Atromitos in Tense 2-1 Victory at AEL FC Arena
Larisa secured a hard-fought 2-1 win over Atromitos at the AEL FC Arena, capitalizing on a strong first-half performance before weathering late pressure from the visitors. The hosts struck early, finding the net in the 13th minute and doubling their lead before halftime. Atromitos, despite enjoying nearly equal possession and registering more total shots, could only breach the Larisa defense in stoppage time, leaving their comeback too little, too late. The match was characterized by physical battles and tactical discipline, with Atromitos collecting four yellow cards as they struggled to contain Larisa's midfield dynamism. Both sides created chances—Larisa with 11 shots (5 on target), Atromitos with 14 (6 on target)—but the home side’s clinical edge in the opening half proved decisive. A late Atromitos goal set up a nervy finish, but Larisa held on for a deserved three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Larisa open the scoring with an early strike to seize momentum.
34' — Goal
Larisa double their lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
45' — Yellow Card
Atromitos pick up their second yellow card, reflecting growing frustration.
70' — Yellow Card
Atromitos see another booking as they chase the game.
90' — Goal
Panagiotis Tsantilas scores for Atromitos in stoppage time, but it's too late to rescue a point.
Larisa
Larisa started brightly, asserting themselves with early attacking intent and converting two of their five shots on target before the interval. Their midfield trio of Facundo Pérez, Goni Naor, and Jani Atanasov controlled the tempo, while the defense, marshaled by Lazar Rosić and Dylan Batubinsika, largely kept Atromitos at bay until the final moments. Although they conceded late, Larisa’s organization and discipline—committing just 12 fouls and receiving only one yellow card—helped them see out the result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Atromitos
Atromitos matched Larisa in possession (49%) and outshot the hosts, but struggled to turn their chances into goals until the dying minutes. Their midfield, led by Samuel Moutoussamy and Steven Zuber, pushed forward with intent, but frequent fouling (20 committed, 4 yellow cards) disrupted their rhythm. Despite a late surge and a goal in stoppage time, Atromitos' lack of composure in front of goal and defensive lapses in the first half ultimately cost them.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up with compact defensive units and a midfield three, seeking to control the center of the park. Larisa’s pressing in the opening half forced Atromitos into hurried passes and mistakes, while their fullbacks provided width to stretch the visitors’ back line. Atromitos responded with a more aggressive approach after halftime, pushing their midfielders higher and committing numbers forward, but this left them exposed to counters and resulted in frequent fouls. Set pieces proved a battleground, with Atromitos earning six corners but failing to convert their aerial opportunities. Substitutions introduced fresh legs for both sides, but neither team significantly altered their shape. Larisa’s tactical discipline and ability to absorb pressure were key in preserving their lead, while Atromitos’ late offensive flurry highlighted their attacking potential, albeit too late.
Turning Point
Larisa’s second goal in the 34th minute gave them a crucial cushion, allowing them to manage the game and withstand Atromitos’ late rally.
Man of the Match
Facundo Pérez
Dominated midfield battles, set the tempo, and was instrumental in both phases of play.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Larisa vs Atromitos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Larisa vs Atromitos?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Larisa vs Atromitos(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 1.92
Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5, and Atromitos have scored in all of their last 5. Larisa's defense is leaky (1.4 conceded/game last 5), while Atromitos' attack is strong (2.4 scored/game last 5).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.37
Both teams have a high over 2.5 rate recently (Atromitos 48%, Larisa 36% season, but 4/5 recent BTTS), and recent H2H matches have been open (3-2, 1-1, 0-1 last three).
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More Super League 1 Predictions
The Case For This Larisa vs Atromitos Prediction
Atromitos visit Larisa as the stronger side, boasting superior form and attacking output. Larisa have struggled for wins and defensive solidity, while Atromitos have been more prolific in recent matches, though both sides have shown vulnerability at the back. Expect an open contest with both teams likely to score, but Atromitos’ edge in attack and away record make them slight favorites.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Atromitos have a positive away record (6W, 4D, 6L) compared to Larisa's poor home form (2W, 8D, 7L).
- →Head-to-head: Atromitos unbeaten in last 6 vs Larisa, with 4 draws.
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →Larisa have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 and conceded 1.4/game.
Match Context
- →Atromitos have scored 2.4 goals/game in their last 5, Larisa just 1.0.
🚩 Larisa vs Atromitos Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Larisa and 6 for Atromitos, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Larisa and Atromitos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Larisa vs Atromitos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Larisalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Atromitoslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Larisa come into this match winless in their last five (3 draws, 2 losses), struggling for goals and defensive stability. Atromitos, in contrast, have won three of their last five, including a recent 3-2 win over Larisa, but have lost their last two, suggesting some inconsistency.
Larisa vs Atromitos — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Larisa vs Atromitos
The head-to-head history is balanced but slightly favors Atromitos, who have won two of the last five meetings and drawn the other three. Recent encounters have been open, with both teams scoring in the last two, and only one goalless draw in the last five.
Larisa vs Atromitos Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Larisa wins
5
Draws
3
Atromitos wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Larisa vs Atromitos
The best value appears on BTTS 'Yes', where the model probability (0.58) exceeds the implied odds (0.52). Over 2.5 goals is also slightly favored, though the odds are short. No significant value on 1x2, as the market is already heavily shading Atromitos and the draw.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Larisa vs Atromitos
- ⚠️Some away team recent match stats are missing (shots, xG, etc.), increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Larisa's home record is draw-heavy, raising risk of stalemate.
- ⚠️Motivation and lineup choices are unknown at this late season stage.
- ⚠️No injury data, but late-season rotations possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Larisa vs Atromitos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.