Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Lech Poznan
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Wisla Plock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Over 2.5
@ 5.2(+42% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5@ 2.2
Model over 1.5 = 0.82 vs odds 2.20 (implied 0.45) gives large edge (+0.37). Qualitatively supported by Lech’s attack (37 home GF; last 5: 3-1, 1-1, 1-0, 4-0, 2-1) and Wisla’s defense conceding 9 in their last 4.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 5.2
Model over 2.5 = 0.61 vs odds 5.20 (implied 0.19) is a very large model edge (+0.42). Lech’s season over 2.5 is 66.7%; both teams have 3/5 overs recently. Lech’s scoring form (4-0 v Legia, 3-1 last match) underpins upside.
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Over/Under 3.5: Over 3.5@ 11
Model over 3.5 = 0.39 vs odds 11.00 (implied 0.09) shows a sizable positive edge (+0.30). Variance is high, but Lech have posted big home wins (4-0) and Wisla have suffered heavy defeats (0-4, 0-3) recently.
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The Case For This Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Prediction
Top-of-table Lech Poznan welcome a slumping Wisla Plock. Lech arrive WDWWW, including a 4-0 home win over Legia and a 3-1 away win last time. They’ve scored 37 in 16 at home. Wisla’s form has tailed off badly (LLLLW), with four blanks in five and 0-4, 0-3, 0-1, 0-1 in their last four defeats. The pre-computed model totals (λ 1.80–1.35, total 3.15) point to goals, but current dynamics tilt those goals toward Lech. H2H is favorable to Lech (5W in last 10) and the reverse fixture finished 0-0. Expect Lech to press on the front foot, likely leading by halftime and controlling the second half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Lech home scoring: 37 GF in 16 home matches (2.31 per game).
- →Pre-computed xG rates: λ_home 1.80, λ_away 1.35 (total 3.15).
Defence
- →Lech last 5: WDWWW; goals 11-3 conceded (derived_stats last_5_avg: 2.2 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- →Wisla last 5: LLLLW; 4/5 failed to score; 0.6 scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
- →Wisla away conceded 20 in 16; away record 4-6-6.
Match Context
- →Season over 2.5: Lech 66.7%; Wisla 33.3%.
- →H2H last 10: Lech 5W, Wisla 2W, 3D; reverse fixture 0-0.
🚩 Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Lech Poznan and 5.8 for Wisla Plock, for an expected total of 11.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 58%.
How Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lech Poznanlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Wisla Plocklast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lech’s trend is strongly positive: 4 wins and 1 draw, including a 4-0 over Legia and 3-1 away at Radomiak. Wisla’s trend is sharply negative: 4 straight losses, 10 conceded in the last 4, and 4/5 matches without scoring.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock
H2H tilts to Lech, especially at Stadion Poznan. While there have been low-scoring first halves historically (several 0-0 HTs), Lech’s current scoring level suggests a higher home edge than earlier meetings.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Lech Poznan wins
3
Draws
2
Wisla Plock wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock
The model flags major mispricing on goal overs: Over 1.5 (0.82 vs 2.20), Over 2.5 (0.61 vs 5.20), and Over 3.5 (0.39 vs 11.00). These are supported by Lech’s strong home scoring rate and recent high-margin wins, plus Wisla’s recent heavy defeats, though totals pricing may be anomalous—stake conservatively.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock
- ⚠️Totals odds appear extreme (e.g., Over 2.5 at 5.20). Could indicate data/market error or illiquid pricing; stakes sized accordingly.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; any late rotations on a final matchday could impact goal expectations.
- ⚠️Some recent match stat fields are missing/partial; reliance is on results and derived summaries.
- ⚠️Model adjustment increases home win bias; if Wisla regress toward season-average attack (0.97 gpg), away probability may be slightly higher than adjusted.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.