Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Lechia Gdansk
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Legia Warszawa
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+12% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.6
The model assigns a 40% probability to the draw, significantly higher than the 28% implied by the odds, and both teams have a high draw count in recent matches and H2H.
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The Case For This Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Prediction
This fixture pits two teams with contrasting recent momentum but similar season points and defensive vulnerabilities. Lechia Gdansk, despite a strong home record, are on a poor run with three straight losses, while Legia Warszawa have steadied with back-to-back wins and improved defensive solidity. Both teams have struggled for goals in recent matches, and the historical H2H shows a trend towards tight, low-scoring encounters, making a draw the most likely outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have identical points in the league, but Lechia's home form is notably better than Legia's away form.
Attack
- →Recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring and closely contested, with draws in two of the last three.
Defence
- →Lechia Gdansk are on a three-game losing streak and have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last three matches.
- →Legia Warszawa have kept three clean sheets in their last five and are unbeaten in four of those matches.
Match Context
- →Season over 2.5 goal percentage is high for Lechia (71.88%) but much lower for Legia (37.5%), though both teams' recent games trend under.
🚩 Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Lechia Gdansk and 3.6 for Legia Warszawa, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lechia Gdansklast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Legia Warszawalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Lechia Gdansk are in poor form, losing four of their last five and conceding heavily despite strong home numbers earlier in the season. Legia Warszawa, on the other hand, have bounced back from a heavy defeat at Lech Poznan with consecutive 1-0 wins, showing improved defensive discipline and resilience.
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.88% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa
The head-to-head record favors Legia Warszawa, but recent meetings have been tight, with two draws and a narrow Legia win in the last three. Both teams have shown a tendency to cancel each other out, and goals have been at a premium in these encounters.
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Lechia Gdansk wins
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa
The biggest value lies on the draw in the 1x2 market, where the model sees a 40% chance versus the 28% implied by odds of 3.6. The under 2.5 market is heavily favored by bookmakers, but the model suggests a slightly lower probability, indicating no value there. With both teams' recent form and H2H trends, the draw is the standout value selection.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) are missing for several recent games, increasing uncertainty.
- ⚠️No BTTS odds available, so value in that market cannot be assessed.
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is based on a small sample and may be affected by end-of-season motivation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.