Londrina vs Vila Nova Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Londrina
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 1
Vila Nova
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.1(+6% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Vila Nova Edge 10-Man Londrina in Fiery Serie B Clash
Vila Nova emerged victorious with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Londrina at Estádio Jacy Scaff, in a match that was as much about discipline as it was about footballing quality. Despite dominating possession with a commanding 66% and firing 18 shots, Vila Nova struggled to break down a resilient Londrina side until the 65th minute, when they finally found the breakthrough. The contest was marred by disciplinary issues, with a total of 11 yellow cards and three reds, as tempers flared and both teams finished with reduced numbers. Londrina, who set up in a 4-2-3-1, were forced onto the back foot for much of the match, managing just 34% possession and 7 shots, but kept themselves in contention thanks to some resolute defending and sharp goalkeeping from Kozlinski. Ultimately, the numerical disadvantage proved too much, and Vila Nova's persistence paid off as they claimed all three points, leaving Londrina to rue their lack of attacking threat and costly dismissals.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
65' — Goal
Vila Nova break the deadlock after sustained pressure, scoring the game's only goal.
Multiple' — Red Cards
Londrina reduced to 9 men, Vila Nova to 10, as tempers boil over with three total red cards.
Throughout' — Yellow Cards
A total of 11 yellow cards are shown in a fiercely contested match.
Londrina
Londrina showed plenty of grit and defensive organization, absorbing waves of Vila Nova pressure for much of the afternoon. Their 4-2-3-1 formation was compact, and goalkeeper Kozlinski was called into action repeatedly, making key saves to keep his side in contention. However, their attacking output was limited, with only 7 shots (5 on target) and minimal time on the ball. Disciplinary lapses proved costly, as two red cards left them with an uphill battle in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vila Nova
Vila Nova asserted control from the outset, dictating play with 66% possession and creating the lion's share of chances, registering 18 shots. Their persistence was finally rewarded in the 65th minute with the game's only goal. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, though they let their discipline slip, picking up six yellows and a red card. Their ability to maintain composure in the face of a physical contest was key to securing the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 formations, but Vila Nova's approach was markedly more proactive, pressing high and circulating possession with patience. Their wide play and frequent overlaps stretched Londrina, who responded by sitting deep and defending in numbers. Substitutions, though not detailed, likely sought to reinforce midfield control and manage the physical demands as cards mounted. Set pieces and corners (Vila Nova had nine) were a constant threat, though Londrina's defensive shape held until the decisive moment. Londrina, by contrast, rarely ventured forward in numbers, instead relying on counter-attacks and direct balls to Bruno Santos. Their tactical discipline in defense was undermined by lapses in discipline, as repeated fouls and cards disrupted any chance of building attacking momentum.
Turning Point
The 65th-minute goal for Vila Nova, coming after relentless pressure and just before Londrina's second red card, decisively shifted the match.
Man of the Match
Marquinhos Gabriel
Orchestrated Vila Nova's attacking play, consistently threatening and pivotal in the winning goal.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.55
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Londrina vs Vila Nova Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Londrina vs Vila Nova?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Londrina vs Vila Nova(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.1
Both teams have shown a tendency for draws in their H2H history and Vila Nova's strong defense combined with Londrina's lack of home wins suggest a low-scoring, tight match. The model's probability for a draw is higher than the implied odds, offering a small value edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.14
Both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring, and Londrina's attack at home is poor. However, the odds are short and the value is limited, so only a moderate stake is suggested.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Londrina vs Vila Nova Prediction
Londrina, struggling near the bottom of the table and winless at home, face a high-flying Vila Nova side that has lost just once all season. Vila Nova's solid defense and efficient attack make them favorites, but their away games tend to be tight, and Londrina's desperation could see them dig in for a result. Expect a low-scoring encounter where a single goal could decide it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Vila Nova have lost just once in 10 league games and are unbeaten in their last 2 away matches.
- →Head-to-head history shows a tendency for close matches, with 3 draws in the last 10 meetings and several 1-0 or 1-1 scorelines.
Defence
- →Londrina have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches and have the lowest clean sheet % in the league.
- →Vila Nova have conceded just 6 goals in 5 away games and average only 0.8 goals conceded per game in their last 5.
Match Context
- →Londrina are winless at home (0W, 2D, 2L) and have scored only 4 goals in 4 home games.
🚩 Londrina vs Vila Nova Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Londrina and 5.5 for Vila Nova, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Londrina and Vila Nova Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Londrina vs Vila Nova Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Londrinalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Novalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrina come into this match on a poor run, losing 4 of their last 5 and failing to score in 3 of those games. Vila Nova, by contrast, have won 3 of their last 5, including consecutive wins in their last two matches, and have shown strong defensive solidity, conceding only 4 goals in that span.
Londrina vs Vila Nova — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 59% avg
What History Says: Londrina vs Vila Nova
The head-to-head record is fairly even, but recent matches have often been low-scoring and closely contested. Draws and one-goal margins are common, with neither side consistently dominating the fixture.
Londrina vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Londrina wins
2
Draws
4
Vila Nova wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Londrina vs Vila Nova
The model sees a slightly higher probability for a draw than the bookmakers, suggesting some value at current odds. Most other markets, especially under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no,' are priced tightly and offer little to no value. The safest approach is to target the draw or consider under goals in multi-bet strategies.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Londrina vs Vila Nova
- ⚠️Londrina's recent heavy defeat (0-3) and inconsistent lineups increase uncertainty.
- ⚠️No lineup or late injury news available; actual starting XIs could impact goal threat.
- ⚠️Vila Nova's away form is good but not dominant; a defensive approach could limit goals further.
- ⚠️Betting value is marginal given short odds on main markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Londrina vs Vila Nova: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.