Lorient vs Auxerre Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Lorient
Auxerre
📍 Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
🗓️ Sunday, 1 Mar 2026 at 16:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 62.0%
Draw: 27.0%
Away: 11.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
81.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.8
EV: 13.2%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (34%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from the odds (21%), offering a positive expected value. Lorient's home attack and Auxerre's defensive frailty suggest some chance of a higher scoreline despite both teams' under trends.
1x2 — home@ 1.48
EV: -6.0%
Lorient are strong at home (6W/4D/1L), Auxerre are weak away (1W/3D/7L, 7 GF/18 GA), and recent form favours Lorient. However, the odds are short and value is marginal.
Match Analysis
Lorient host Auxerre in a clash between a solid mid-table side and a struggling relegation battler. Lorient's home form is one of the best in Ligue 1, with only one home defeat all season and a strong recent run (DWLWW). Auxerre, by contrast, have scored just 7 goals in 11 away matches and failed to score in four of their last five overall. Lorient's attack has been effective at home (2.0 goals/game), while Auxerre's away defence is leaky (1.64 conceded/game). The likely scenario is a controlled Lorient win, with a clean sheet probable given Auxerre's blunt attack. Most indicators point to a low-scoring game, but the price on over 2.5 goals is attractive for small stakes.
Key Factors
- →Lorient's home record: 6W/4D/1L, 22 GF/16 GA
- →Auxerre's away record: 1W/3D/7L, 7 GF/18 GA
- →Auxerre failed to score in 4 of last 5 matches
- →Lorient average 2.0 goals/game at home
- →Both teams' clean sheet rate: 21.7% (season)
- →Recent H2H: 4 draws, 4 Auxerre wins, 2 Lorient wins (but Lorient won last two home Ligue 1 games)
- →Few injuries: Lorient missing N. Adjei (not a regular starter)
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favour Lorient
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games (shots, possession, etc.)
- ⚠️Low sample size for some derived stats
- ⚠️Auxerre's attack is unpredictable and could improve
- ⚠️Lorient's defence concedes above 1.5 goals/game on average
- ⚠️H2H has been relatively close historically
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.