Mara Sugar vs Mathare United Predictions
FKF Premier League · Kenya
Mara Sugar
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Mathare United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
26%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mara Sugar vs Mathare United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Mara Sugar vs Mathare United(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have a low over 2.5 goal rate this season (30-32%), recent matches are typically low scoring, and both sides average under 1 goal scored per game. H2H history also trends under.
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Match Result: Mara Sugar Win
Mara Sugar have better recent form, a stronger defensive record, and a positive H2H trend at home. Mathare United have struggled away and have a negative goal difference.
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BTTS: No
Both teams have more clean sheets than BTTS games in their last 5, and both average less than 1 goal scored per match. The matchup profiles as a likely low-scoring, one-sided affair.
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More FKF Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Mara Sugar vs Mathare United Prediction
This is a mid-table FKF Premier League clash where Mara Sugar, with a solid recent run, host a Mathare United side struggling for consistency. Mara Sugar's defense has been especially impressive, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in their last five, while Mathare United have failed to score in two of their last five and have a poor away record. The H2H history and both teams' season-long goal stats suggest a tight, low-scoring contest, with the home side slightly favored.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average less than 1 goal scored per game this season.
Defence
- →Mara Sugar have lost just once in their last five, with three clean sheets.
Match Context
- →Mathare United have only three away wins all season and a negative goal difference.
- →H2H history favors Mara Sugar, especially at home.
- →Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate (30-32%).
How Mara Sugar and Mathare United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mara Sugar vs Mathare United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Mara Sugarlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mathare Unitedlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Mara Sugar come into this match with three wins from their last five, including two away victories and a home win, showing strong defensive resilience with three clean sheets. Mathare United, meanwhile, have only one win in their last five, losing three, and have struggled to find the net consistently, failing to score in two of those matches.
Mara Sugar vs Mathare United — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Mara Sugar vs Mathare United
The head-to-head record is tilted toward Mara Sugar, who have won three of the last five encounters and kept clean sheets in both home fixtures. These matches have generally been low-scoring, with only one of the last five producing more than two goals.
Mara Sugar vs Mathare United Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Mara Sugar wins
0
Draws
2
Mathare United wins
Things to Watch: Mara Sugar vs Mathare United
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No shots, corners, or cards data for recent matches, increasing uncertainty in set piece and discipline predictions.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available; late injury or rotation news could impact projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mara Sugar vs Mathare United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.