Metz vs Toulouse Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Metz
Toulouse
📍 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Mar 2026 at 16:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 14.0%
Draw: 33.0%
Away: 53.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
85.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 3.3
EV: 9.0%
Metz have struggled badly in attack (0.2 goals per game last 5, failed to score in 4/5), but Toulouse are also in poor form and have drawn 7/25 this season. H2H history is draw-heavy (6 of last 10). The model sees a higher draw probability than the market.
btts — no@ 1.17
EV: 0.0%
Metz have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, and Toulouse have only scored in 2 of their last 5. Both teams have low BTTS rates recently. This is a low-scoring matchup on paper.
ou_2_5 — under@ 1.13
EV: 0.0%
Both teams are averaging under 1 goal scored per game in their last 5, and neither attack is in form. Model probability for under 2.5 is very high. Odds are short, but this is a strong statistical lean.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two out-of-form sides, but Metz's struggles are far more severe. Metz have lost 4 straight and scored just once in their last 5 games, while Toulouse have also failed to win in 5, but have at least shown some attacking intent. Metz's home record is poor, and their attack is almost non-existent recently. Toulouse's away record is average, but their defense is much more solid than Metz's. The H2H record is draw-heavy, but Toulouse have dominated recent meetings. Expect a low-scoring, cagey affair, with Toulouse slight favorites but a draw very possible.
Key Factors
- →Metz have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches and failed to score in 4 of them.
- →Toulouse have lost 3 of their last 5 but have a much better season record and away defense.
- →Metz have the league's worst defense (2.24 conceded per game) and the worst attack (0.88 scored per game).
- →Recent H2H matches are draw-heavy (6/10), but Toulouse have won the last 3 meetings without conceding.
- →Both teams' recent matches are low-scoring; under 2.5 goals is highly probable.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Metz are in a desperate situation and may take more risks than usual.
- ⚠️Both teams are in poor form, which increases volatility.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats for Metz are missing, reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Toulouse's attack has been inefficient recently, so a 0-0 is plausible.
- ⚠️Low odds on under 2.5 and BTTS no limit value despite high probability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.