Millwall vs Derby Prediction
Championship · England
Millwall
Derby
📍 The Den, London
🗓️ Tuesday, 10 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 46.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 22.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
61.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.5
EV: 19.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (41%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (22%). Both teams have over 48% of their matches this season going over 2.5, and Derby's away games tend to be more open.
1x2 — draw@ 3.4
EV: 3.0%
Draw is a frequent result in H2H (3/10 recent), and both teams have solid defensive records. Model probability is marginally higher than bookmaker implied.
Match Analysis
Millwall come into this match in strong form, winning four of their last five, and boast a solid home record. Derby have been inconsistent, with three losses in their last five, but are capable of scoring away from home. Both teams are in the playoff race, so motivation is high. Millwall's defence is notably stronger, especially at home, but Derby's attack can threaten, making this a potentially cagey but competitive encounter. Goals may be at a premium, but the value on over 2.5 is notable given both sides' season-long trends.
Key Factors
- →Millwall's recent form: 4 wins in last 5, strong at home (10W/3D/5L)
- →Derby's away record is decent (8W/3D/6L) but recent form is patchy
- →Millwall average 2.0 goals scored in last 5, Derby 1.6
- →Millwall's defence: 3 clean sheets in last 5, Derby only 1
- →Head-to-heads are often close; 3 of last 10 meetings ended 1-1
- →Both teams have >48% over 2.5 goal rate this season
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some last 5 match stats missing (shots, possession, etc.) for both teams
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of analysis; late injuries or rotations possible
- ⚠️Corners and cards data is sparse; estimates based on available averages
- ⚠️Market odds may shift pre-match, affecting value calculations
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.