Napoli vs Bologna Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Napoli
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 2 - 0
Bologna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.14
Match Result
8.2/10Last-Gasp Castro Strike Seals Dramatic 3-2 Win for Bologna in Naples
Bologna stunned Napoli at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona with a dramatic 3-2 victory, capped by Santiago Castro’s last-minute winner. The visitors took control early, with goals in the 10th and 34th minutes, but Napoli fought back to level the match shortly after halftime. However, it was Castro who had the final say, breaking Neapolitan hearts with a decisive strike in the dying moments. Napoli, lining up in a 3-4-2-1, dominated possession (52%) and registered more shots (14 to Bologna’s 10), but their defensive frailties were exposed by Bologna’s incisive attack. Despite rallying from a two-goal deficit, the hosts could not hold on, as Bologna’s resilience and clinical edge proved decisive in a thrilling contest.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
10' — Goal
Riccardo Orsolini gives Bologna an early lead, finishing off a swift attack.
34' — Goal
Bologna double their advantage, putting Napoli on the back foot.
45' — Goal
Rasmus Højlund pulls one back for Napoli just before halftime, shifting momentum.
48' — Goal
Napoli equalize early in the second half, completing their comeback.
90' — Goal
Santiago Castro scores a dramatic late winner for Bologna.
Napoli
Napoli showed impressive spirit to recover from a two-goal deficit, with goals just before and after halftime breathing life into their challenge. Their 52% possession and 14 shots reflected attacking intent, and they forced 7 corners, but defensive lapses proved costly. The back three struggled to contain Bologna’s front line, and Napoli’s late push was undone by a sucker punch at the death. Key players like Rasmus Højlund and Stanislav Lobotka were instrumental in the fightback, but the lack of composure in both boxes ultimately denied Napoli a result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bologna
Bologna executed a superb away performance, combining defensive grit with attacking efficiency. Despite seeing less of the ball (48% possession) and conceding more chances, they were ruthless in front of goal, converting 3 of their 4 shots on target. Their 4 yellow cards reflected a combative approach, but they managed the game’s crucial moments expertly. Santiago Castro was the hero with the stoppage-time winner, while Riccardo Orsolini and Federico Bernardeschi also played key roles in a disciplined and opportunistic display.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Napoli’s 3-4-2-1 formation aimed to control midfield and overload wide areas, with Lobotka orchestrating play and wingbacks pushing high. This approach yielded territorial dominance and numerous corners, but left spaces for Bologna’s front three to exploit on the break. The back three, lacking adequate cover, struggled against the pace and movement of Orsolini and Castro. Bologna, set up in a 4-3-3, were disciplined out of possession and quick to transition. Their midfield trio provided a solid screen, while the wide forwards pressed Napoli’s defenders and capitalized on turnovers. As Napoli pressed for a winner late on, Bologna’s tactical patience paid off, culminating in Castro’s decisive counter-attacking goal.
Turning Point
Santiago Castro’s 90th-minute strike, snatching victory for Bologna just as Napoli seemed poised to complete their comeback.
Man of the Match
Santiago Castro
Delivered the match-winning goal in stoppage time and was a constant threat throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 0.40
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
26%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Napoli vs Bologna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Napoli vs Bologna?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Napoli vs Bologna(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–0
Napoli's strong home defense (0.88 goals conceded/game at home) and Bologna's recent attacking struggles (0.4 goals/game last 5, 4/5 failed to score) make a 2-0 home win a plausible outcome.
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BTTS: No@ 1.14
Both teams have a low BTTS rate recently (Napoli 1/5, Bologna 0/5), and Bologna have failed to score in 4 of their last 5. Napoli also keep clean sheets in 3/5.
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Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5
Napoli average 1.76 goals/game at home and Bologna concede 1.24 away; with Napoli's attacking depth, a 2+ goal match is likely.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Napoli vs Bologna Prediction
Napoli come into this fixture as clear favorites, boasting strong home form and defensive solidity, while Bologna have struggled for goals and results in recent weeks. The home side's attack, led by creative midfielders and supported by a disciplined defense, should be able to break down a Bologna team that has failed to score in four of their last five matches. Expect Napoli to control possession and tempo, with Bologna likely to sit deep and try to frustrate, but ultimately lacking the firepower to threaten consistently.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: Napoli unbeaten in last 3 at home to Bologna, winning all
Attack
- →Bologna's recent attacking form: 0.4 goals/game last 5, 4/5 failed to score
- →Napoli average 13 shots, 3.2 on target per last 5; Bologna only 5 shots, 1.6 on target
Defence
- →Napoli 3 clean sheets in last 5; Bologna 2 clean sheets but against weaker opposition
Match Context
- →Napoli's home record: 12W 4D 1L, 30:15 GF:GA
- →Motivation: Napoli still in title/top 2 race; Bologna mid-table, little at stake
🚩 Napoli vs Bologna Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Napoli and 4 for Bologna, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Napoli and Bologna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Napoli vs Bologna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Napolilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bolognalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Napoli are in solid form, unbeaten in four of their last five (DWLDW) and coming off a convincing 4-0 home win over Cremonese, though they did stumble with a home loss to Lazio. Bologna, meanwhile, have struggled badly in attack, with only one win and one goal scored in their last five Serie A matches (DLLLW), including three straight defeats and four games without scoring.
Napoli vs Bologna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Napoli vs Bologna
Napoli have the edge in recent head-to-heads, especially at home, where they've won convincingly in the last three meetings. Bologna did win the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier this season, but that was at home; in Naples, Napoli have generally been dominant, with scorelines like 2-0 and 3-0 recurring.
Napoli vs Bologna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Napoli wins
3
Draws
3
Bologna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Napoli vs Bologna
Bookmaker odds heavily favor Napoli and the 'under' markets, leaving little value in the main outcomes. The model aligns with the low BTTS and under 2.5 goals probabilities, but the odds are short and offer negative or negligible edge. Correct score and over 1.5 goals markets may offer better value if available, given the likely scenario of a controlled Napoli win.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Napoli vs Bologna
- ⚠️Some injury uncertainty for both teams, especially Bologna (several questionable players)
- ⚠️Missing lineup data for this fixture; possible late changes could impact predictions
- ⚠️Bologna's away form is mid-table respectable (8W 4D 5L), so upset risk not zero
- ⚠️Low odds on main markets (1x2, under 2.5, BTTS no) limit value
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Napoli vs Bologna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.