New York City FC vs Nashville SC Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New York City FC
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Nashville SC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Nashville SC Win
@ 2.9(+45% edge)
New York City FC vs Nashville SC: Match Preview
Nashville SC arrive in the Bronx riding a wave of momentum, having racked up three consecutive MLS wins and sitting top of the table with 49 points from 21 matches. Their attack is firing on all cylinders, and confidence is high after scoring three or more in three of their last five. In contrast, New York City FC are mired in their worst run of the season, winless in five competitive matches and leaking goals at an alarming rate. With just one point from their last three league outings, NYCFC's playoff ambitions are under threat unless they can halt the slide.
Statistically, this matchup pits Nashville's in-form, balanced attack (2.6 goals, 13.4 shots per game in the last five) against a NYCFC defence that has conceded two or more in four of their last five. Nashville's ability to strike early and late—netting 6 first-half and 7 second-half goals in their recent run—contrasts with NYCFC's second-half fade, having failed to score after the break in their last five. Set-piece numbers also tilt toward the visitors, who average nearly seven corners per match, while NYCFC's discipline has wavered with 2.6 yellow cards per game recently.
The model expects Nashville's momentum and defensive solidity (just five away goals conceded all season) to be decisive. NYCFC's attack is capable, especially at home, but their lack of clean sheets and recent form make them vulnerable. Unless the hosts can rediscover their defensive structure, Nashville's efficiency and confidence should see them edge a match with multiple goals.
How New York City FC and Nashville SC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New York City FC vs Nashville SC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New York City FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nashville SClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Nashville SC are the league's form team, having won their last three MLS matches and scoring 13 goals in their last five across all competitions. NYCFC, by contrast, are winless in five, with a form string of DLLLL and a defence that has conceded two or more in four of those games. The momentum is firmly with the visitors, who have also performed well on the road this season.
New York City FC vs Nashville SC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New York City FC vs Nashville SC that most previews miss.
- 1NYCFC have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding at least two in four of them.
- 2Nashville have scored in both halves in four of their last five games, with 13 goals split nearly evenly between halves.
- 3The last five H2H meetings have produced goals at both ends, with BTTS landing in four of those.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
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The Case For This New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction
Nashville SC's surge to the summit of the MLS table has been powered by a relentless run of form, with three straight league wins and 13 points from their last five. In stark contrast, New York City FC have stalled, failing to win any of their last five matches and conceding two or more in four of those. The hosts' defensive frailty and lack of clean sheets have left them vulnerable, and their current momentum is trending downward at precisely the wrong time. Tactically, this is a clash between a high-octane Nashville attack (2.6 goals, 13.4 shots per game last five) and a NYCFC defence that has leaked 2.0 goals per game recently. Nashville's ability to score in both halves (6 first-half, 7 second-half goals in last five) puts added pressure on a home side that has failed to keep opponents at bay, especially after the break. Set pieces could also play a role, with Nashville averaging 6.8 corners per match over their last five, while NYCFC have struggled to defend their box. Given the form trajectories, the model expects Nashville's momentum to carry them through, even away from home. NYCFC's attack has shown flashes, but their inability to close out matches and persistent defensive lapses make them second favourites here. Unless the hosts can rediscover their defensive structure, Nashville's efficiency and confidence should see them edge a match with multiple goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Nashville SC have won three straight MLS matches, scoring 8 and conceding 3 in that run.
- →NYCFC are winless in their last five (DLLLL), conceding 2.0 goals per game and keeping zero clean sheets.
- →Nashville's away defence is the best in MLS: just 5 goals conceded in 10 away league games.
Where the Model Sees Value: New York City FC vs Nashville SC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Nashville SC Win@ 2.86
Nashville arrive on a three-match MLS winning streak, averaging 2.6 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded over their last five, while NYCFC are winless in five (DLLLL) and have not kept a clean sheet in that span. The away side's momentum and defensive solidity (season: 0.81 goals conceded/game, 42.86% clean sheet rate) make the 2.90 price a clear value.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.72
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and NYCFC's last five have averaged 3.2 total goals per game. Nashville's attack is in top gear, and neither side has failed to score in their last five.
Read more ↓
More Major League Soccer Predictions
🚩 New York City FC vs Nashville SC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for New York City FC and 5.6 for Nashville SC, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
What History Says: New York City FC vs Nashville SC
The head-to-head record is finely poised, with Nashville winning four and NYCFC three of the last nine meetings. Notably, the away side has won the last two encounters, and four of the last five have seen both teams score. Only one of the last nine has ended goalless, suggesting goals are likely again.
New York City FC vs Nashville SC Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
New York City FC wins
2
Draws
4
Nashville SC wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: New York City FC vs Nashville SC
The standout value is on Nashville SC at 2.90, with the model rating their win probability at 50% versus the implied 34%. Over 2.5 goals is also a mild value at 1.73 given both teams' recent goal trends, but the away win is the clearest edge based on current form. BTTS odds are about right, offering little value given the model's 60% probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: New York City FC vs Nashville SC
- ⚠️NYCFC's home attack averages 2.27 goals per game (25 in 11), which could punish any Nashville slip.
- ⚠️Momentum can shift quickly in MLS; NYCFC's underlying shot numbers (12.2 per game last five) suggest they are not completely out of form.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New York City FC 1–2 Nashville SCThe model calls a 2-1 away win for Nashville SC, with their three-match winning streak and 2.6 goals per game form the standout factor. The biggest risk is NYCFC's strong home attack—averaging over two goals per game at Yankee Stadium—which could punish any lapse from the visitors and turn this into a shootout.
New York City FC vs Nashville SC: Common Questions
Who will win New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
The model gives Nashville SC a 50% chance of victory, compared to 23% for NYCFC and 27% for the draw. Nashville's recent momentum and defensive record make them clear favourites despite playing away.
Will both teams score in NYCFC vs Nashville?
There's a 60% probability of both teams finding the net, with both sides scoring in four of their last five matches and NYCFC yet to fail to score in that span.
Can NYCFC end their winless streak?
NYCFC are winless in their last five (DLLLL) and face a Nashville side on a three-match winning run. The model gives them a 23% chance to win, so while possible, their current defensive issues make it unlikely unless they raise their level.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New York City FC vs Nashville SC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More New York City FC vs Nashville SC Resources
New York City FC Predictions
All New York City FC fixtures & tips
Nashville SC Predictions
All Nashville SC fixtures & tips
New York City FC vs Nashville SC Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results