Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction
Premier League · England
Newcastle
Sunderland
📍 St. James' Park, Newcastle
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 12:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 64.0%
Draw: 25.0%
Away: 11.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
73.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.1
EV: 80.0%
Model gives 44% probability for over 2.5 goals, while market implies only 24.4%. Newcastle's home attack and Sunderland's recent defensive lapses suggest potential for goals. Value present despite under being more likely.
1x2 — home@ 1.25
EV: 5.0%
Newcastle strong at home (8W in 15), Sunderland weak away (3W in 15, only 8 away goals). Recent form and H2H edge to Newcastle, though odds are short.
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Sunderland in a Tyne-Wear derby with both sides mid-table but Newcastle holding a slight edge in form and home advantage. Newcastle have won 2 of their last 3 and are coming off a big away win at Chelsea, while Sunderland have lost 3 of their last 5 and struggle for goals on the road. Sunderland's away record is poor, with just 8 goals in 15 away matches, and their recent xG and shot numbers are underwhelming. Newcastle's attack at home is more reliable, and their defense should be able to contain Sunderland's limited threat. The derby atmosphere may keep things tight early, but Newcastle's quality and set piece threat could see them pull away, especially in the second half.
Key Factors
- →Newcastle's home record: 8W/2D/5L, 28 goals scored in 15 home matches.
- →Sunderland's away record: 3W/5D/7L, only 8 goals scored in 15 away games.
- →Recent form: Newcastle WDLWL, Sunderland LLWDL.
- →Newcastle average 1.43 goals scored and conceded per game, Sunderland average 1.0 scored and 1.17 conceded.
- →H2H: Sunderland have historically dominated, but Newcastle won the last FA Cup meeting 3-0 away.
- →Newcastle have not failed to score in their last 5, Sunderland have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →Sunderland's XG and offensive output away from home is low.
- →No significant injury concerns for Newcastle; Sunderland missing Alese (defender).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent H2H favours Sunderland, but sample includes old matches with different squads.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games reduces confidence in shot/possession-based projections.
- ⚠️Derby matches can be unpredictable and more physical.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Newcastle are heavy favourites, limiting value on home win.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.