Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Prediction
Premier League · England
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
📍 City Ground, Nottingham
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Feb 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 17.0%
Draw: 23.0%
Away: 60.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
61.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.55
EV: 16.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (44%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (28%), and both teams have shown goal-scoring potential in recent matches, with Liverpool averaging 3 goals/game in last 5 and Forest showing improvement.
btts — yes@ 3.9
EV: 13.0%
BTTS 'yes' value edge: Liverpool are strong in attack but have conceded in 61% of season matches; Forest have scored in 4/5 recent games and Liverpool's away defence is not watertight.
Match Analysis
Liverpool travel to Nottingham Forest as strong favourites, but the hosts have shown resilience at home and have improved defensively, keeping 3 clean sheets in their last 5. Liverpool are in better form, winning 4 of their last 5 in all competitions and averaging 3 goals per game in that stretch. However, Forest's recent attacking output and Liverpool's tendency to concede away from home suggest the hosts could get on the scoresheet. The most likely scenario is a Liverpool win, but a competitive match with goals at both ends is possible, especially if Forest can replicate their recent H2H upset at Anfield.
Key Factors
- →Liverpool's last 5: 4 wins, 1 loss, 3.0 goals scored per game, 0.6 conceded.
- →Forest's last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded.
- →Liverpool away: 5W 3D 5L, 20 scored, 21 conceded (season).
- →Forest home: 3W 4D 6L, 13 scored, 18 conceded (season).
- →Recent H2H: Forest won 3-0 at Anfield this season.
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
- →Liverpool have a higher over 2.5 goal % (61.5%) than Forest (50%).
- →Forest have failed to score in only 1 of last 5.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Liverpool's last 5 averages for shots and possession are anomalously low (likely data gap), so goal/attack estimates are based on broader season stats and recent results.
- ⚠️Forest's home record is weak, but recent form is improved.
- ⚠️H2H sample is small; last result may not be fully indicative.
- ⚠️No lineups available; late injuries or rotations could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds imply a lower goal expectancy than model suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.