Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Predictions
Super League 1 · Greece
Olympiakos Piraeus
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Kalamata
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 8(+31% edge)
Recommended Bets: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata: Match Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in formidable form, having pieced together four consecutive wins across league and Europe, including a gritty 1-0 away triumph at Marseille and a narrow derby victory over Panathinaikos. Their defensive record is outstanding—just one goal conceded in their last five matches—and they sit third in the Super League, one point off the summit. Kalamata, meanwhile, have undergone a transformation in recent weeks, rebounding from a patchy start to win their last two, including a shock 3-1 away win at PAOK and a wild 4-3 home victory over OFI. Their attack has come alive, with David Kurminowski and Kenneth Vargas combining for five goals in those two matches.
The statistical contrast is stark: Olympiakos average 17 shots and 6.6 corners per match in their last five, but their conversion rate is modest, and they have relied on defensive discipline to grind out results. Kalamata, while averaging just 31.6% possession, have become ruthlessly efficient in front of goal, scoring 2.2 per game over their last five and notching eight second-half goals in that span. Olympiakos’ home defence has been watertight (one goal conceded in three league games), but Kalamata’s recent attacking surge and tendency to strike late pose a genuine threat, especially given the hosts’ occasional struggles to kill off matches early.
The model expects Olympiakos’ defensive structure and home advantage to eventually prevail, but Kalamata’s momentum and attacking confidence should ensure a competitive contest. A narrow home win with both sides finding the net fits the recent patterns, as Olympiakos’ control is tested by a visiting side in the midst of a purple patch.
How Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Olympiakos Piraeuslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Kalamatalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Olympiakos are in the midst of a four-match winning streak, conceding just one goal and notching victories over Marseille and Panathinaikos. Their form string of WWWWL reflects a side that has found defensive consistency, though their attack remains workmanlike. Kalamata, on the other hand, have surged with back-to-back wins, scoring seven goals in their last two and showing a newfound attacking verve after a mixed start to the campaign.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata that most previews miss.
- 1Kalamata have scored eight of their last eleven goals in the second half, highlighting their late-game threat.
- 2Olympiakos have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches but have only scored more than one goal once in that span.
- 3Four of Kalamata’s last five matches have seen both teams score, compared to just one for Olympiakos.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.30
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 3-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus enter this fixture riding a wave of momentum, having strung together four consecutive wins across all competitions and conceding just one goal in that span. Their defensive solidity has been the backbone of this streak, but their attack remains somewhat blunt, with only five goals scored in their six league matches. Kalamata, meanwhile, are a side reborn in recent weeks, having put together back-to-back wins including an eye-catching 3-1 away victory at PAOK and a thrilling 4-3 home win over OFI. Their form string of WWLDW masks an attack that has exploded for seven goals in their last two outings, with David Kurminowski and Kenneth Vargas in prolific touch. The tactical battle is shaped by Olympiakos’ control and Kalamata’s directness. Olympiakos average 17 shots and 6.6 corners per game over their last five, but their conversion rate is low, and they have often needed late goals to secure points. Kalamata, by contrast, operate with less possession (31.6% average in the last five) but are clinical on the break, averaging 2.2 goals and 5 shots on target per game recently. Olympiakos’ defence has been difficult to break down at home, conceding just once in three league matches, but Kalamata’s recent attacking surge, combined with their tendency to score late (eight second-half goals in the last five), suggests they can trouble the hosts, especially as Olympiakos have shown some vulnerability to counter-attacks. The model expects Olympiakos’ defensive structure and home advantage to eventually tell, but not without a scare. Kalamata’s attacking form and Olympiakos’ relatively low scoring output point towards a competitive contest, with the hosts likely to edge it but both teams finding the net. The most likely scenario sees Olympiakos controlling the early phases, but Kalamata’s late-game threat keeps the outcome in doubt until the final whistle.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Olympiakos’ attack is underperforming, with just five goals in six league matches.
Defence
- →Olympiakos have won four straight matches, conceding only once in that run.
Match Context
- →Kalamata have scored seven goals in their last two league fixtures, both wins.
Where the Model Sees Value: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 2.59
Kalamata’s last five league matches have seen both teams score on four occasions, and their attack is averaging 2.2 goals per game over that span, while Olympiakos have kept just three clean sheets in their last five. The visitors’ recent momentum in attack and Olympiakos’ occasional defensive lapses make BTTS overpriced.
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Match Result: Draw@ 7.23
Olympiakos are strong favourites but have scored just five goals in six league matches and have only won by more than one goal once all season. Kalamata arrive with back-to-back wins and an in-form attack, so the draw is longer than the model suggests it should be.
Read more ↓
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🚩 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.3 corners for Olympiakos Piraeus and 3.9 for Kalamata, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
What History Says: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
The head-to-head is limited, with Olympiakos winning both prior meetings in the Cup by comfortable margins (4-1 and 2-0), but those came over six years ago. The lack of recent league encounters means current form is a far better guide than historical results for this matchup.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Olympiakos Piraeus wins
0
Draws
0
Kalamata wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
The model sees value in both teams to score at odds of 2.62, as Kalamata’s recent attacking output is underappreciated by the market. There is also a notable edge on the draw, priced at 8.0, given Olympiakos’ modest scoring rate and Kalamata’s momentum. Both bets are supported by recent form trends rather than season-long averages.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
- ⚠️Olympiakos’ recent results are built on defensive solidity, but their attack has struggled for fluency.
- ⚠️Kalamata’s recent attacking form is a sharp uptick from earlier in the season and may not be sustainable.
- ⚠️Limited head-to-head data (only two Cup meetings, last in 2020) reduces certainty around matchup dynamics.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 KalamataOlympiakos are tipped to edge this 2-1, with their defensive resilience the single strongest factor—just one goal conceded in their last five. However, Kalamata’s current attacking momentum, averaging over two goals per game in their last five, is the main risk to this outcome and could see the visitors snatch a result if Olympiakos’ attack remains blunt.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata: Common Questions
Who will win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Olympiakos are strong favourites with a 73% model probability to win, compared to just 9% for Kalamata and 18% for the draw. Their four-match winning streak and defensive record give them the edge, but Kalamata’s recent attacking form makes an upset less far-fetched than the odds suggest.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos vs Kalamata?
There is a 47% probability for both teams to score, higher than the odds imply, as Kalamata have scored in four of their last five and Olympiakos have conceded in only one of their last five. The visitors’ attacking momentum gives BTTS genuine value.
Can Kalamata’s attacking run continue against Olympiakos?
Kalamata are averaging 2.2 goals per game over their last five, but Olympiakos have conceded just once in that span and boast a 67% season clean sheet rate. While the model expects Kalamata to score, Olympiakos’ defensive discipline will provide their toughest test yet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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