Parma vs AS Roma Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Parma
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
AS Roma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 6(+24% edge)
Match Result
8.7/10Roma Snatch Dramatic 3-2 Win Over Parma With Stoppage-Time Double
AS Roma staged a sensational late comeback to defeat Parma 3-2 at the Stadio Ennio Tardini, overturning a deficit with two stoppage-time goals in a pulsating Serie A encounter. Parma, despite holding just 33% possession, twice took the lead through clinical counter-attacks, but ultimately fell victim to Roma's relentless pressure and superior firepower. The hosts struck first in the second half after a goalless opening 45 minutes, but Roma responded through a 22nd-minute opener and then a dramatic double in the dying moments. Parma's defensive resolve was undone by a late red card and Roma's attacking substitutions, as the Giallorossi capitalized on their 67% possession and 14 shots to snatch all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Paulo Dybala opens the scoring for Roma, finishing off a well-worked move.
47' — Goal
Nesta Elphege equalizes for Parma, capitalizing on a swift counter-attack.
87' — Goal
Gabriel Strefezza restores Parma's lead with a composed finish.
90' — Goal
Roma equalize in stoppage time, with Donyell Malen finishing from close range.
90+3' — Goal
Roma complete the turnaround as Matías Soulé scores the dramatic winner.
90' — Red Card
Parma reduced to 10 men after a late sending-off, opening the door for Roma's comeback.
Parma
Parma delivered a spirited performance, maximizing their limited possession with incisive counter-attacks and clinical finishing. Their 3-5-2 formation provided defensive solidity for much of the match, and they twice found the net to put Roma under real pressure. However, a lack of control in midfield and mounting disciplinary issues—culminating in four yellow cards and a late red—proved costly, as they struggled to withstand Roma's late onslaught. Despite being outshot and out-possessed, Parma's resilience and opportunism nearly earned them a result, but lapses in concentration and fatigue in the closing stages allowed Roma to turn the tide.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AS Roma
Roma dominated the ball with 67% possession and created more chances, firing 14 shots with 6 on target. Their 3-4-2-1 setup allowed for fluid attacking play, with Paulo Dybala and Donyell Malen providing constant threats in the final third. Despite falling behind twice, Roma's patience and belief paid off as they pressed relentlessly in the closing stages, eventually breaking Parma's resistance with two goals in stoppage time. The Giallorossi's ability to remain composed and exploit numerical superiority after Parma's red card proved decisive, as they turned a potential defeat into a memorable away victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Parma's 3-5-2 formation prioritized defensive solidity and quick transitions, packing the midfield to limit Roma's central penetration. However, with just 33% possession, they often sat deep and relied on swift counters, which paid dividends with two well-taken goals. Their defensive line, though organized, struggled to cope with Roma's width and late surges. Roma's 3-4-2-1 allowed them to control the tempo, utilizing the creative talents of Dybala and Soulé behind Malen. The wingbacks provided width, and Roma's pressing forced turnovers high up the pitch. Substitutions in the second half injected further attacking impetus, and after Parma's red card, Roma exploited the numerical advantage to devastating effect, pinning Parma back and scoring twice in stoppage time.
Turning Point
Parma's red card in the 90th minute shifted the momentum decisively, enabling Roma to score two late goals and snatch victory.
Man of the Match
Donyell Malen
Scored the crucial equalizer and played a pivotal role in Roma's relentless late push, ultimately delivering the comeback win.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Parma vs AS Roma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Parma vs AS Roma?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Parma vs AS Roma(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 6
Model probability for both teams to score is 41%, while the odds imply just 17%. Parma have scored in 4 of their last 5 at home, and Roma's attack is in strong form, making BTTS a value play.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Parma vs AS Roma Prediction
AS Roma travel to Parma in strong form, boasting a three-match winning streak and an impressive attacking output, while Parma have lost back-to-back games and struggled for consistency. Roma's away record is solid, and their recent scoring surge should test a Parma side whose home defensive record is weak. While Roma are clear favourites, Parma's ability to score at home and Roma's occasional defensive lapses suggest this could be more competitive than the odds imply.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Roma have won 8 of the last 10 H2H meetings.
Defence
- →Roma average 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last 5 matches.
- →Parma's home clean sheet rate is just 33%.
- →Roma's away clean sheet rate is 44%, but they concede 1.24 goals per away game.
Match Context
- →Parma have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- →Bookmaker odds for BTTS (yes) are much higher than model probability.
🚩 Parma vs AS Roma Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Parma and 5.6 for AS Roma, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Parma and AS Roma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Parma vs AS Roma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Parmalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
AS Romalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Parma come into this match on a two-game losing streak, having conceded five goals in their last two games and showing some defensive frailty. Roma, by contrast, are in excellent form with three consecutive wins, scoring nine goals and conceding just two in that span, highlighting their attacking strength and momentum.
Parma vs AS Roma — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Parma vs AS Roma
The head-to-head record is heavily in Roma's favour, with 8 wins from the last 10 meetings and no draws. Most matches have seen Roma score at least twice, and Parma have only managed two wins, both at home, but not since 2021.
Parma vs AS Roma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Parma wins
0
Draws
8
AS Roma wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Parma vs AS Roma
The model finds significant value in the 'both teams to score: yes' market, where the probability is much higher than the odds imply. The draw also matches model and market probabilities, offering no edge. Roma are deserved favourites, but the BTTS market offers the clearest value based on recent attacking trends and defensive vulnerabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Parma vs AS Roma
- ⚠️Parma are missing several players through injury, including key midfielders and attackers.
- ⚠️Roma also have notable absentees, but their squad depth is stronger.
- ⚠️Parma's attack is inconsistent and can fail to score against top sides.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to injury uncertainty and some missing detailed player fitness data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs AS Roma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.